Model of economic development. National economy as a science Patterns of development of the national economy
Within a single national economic system, usually:
- market participants closely interact with each other. The basis of such interaction is the division of labor;
- there is a common center (state authorities) that exercises control over all economic players;
- legislative documents and legal norms adopted or approved by the parliament (legislative body) are applied, unified codes (tax, civil, etc.) are in force;
- uses a common financial system and a single monetary unit.
Characteristics of the national economy
Any national economic system has:
- Players-subjects that carry out economic activities.
- Territories with certain characteristics.
- Resources (human, material, natural).
- various forms of production.
Subjects of the national economy
Players-subjects of nat. economies are:
- individuals who create an additional product (work), participate in commodity-money relations - acquire for what they have earned what other national players have produced. economy;
- enterprises with various forms of ownership, whose main goal is to produce and sell a particular product or service;
- state.
The influence of the state "superstructure"
Without a political “superstructure”, the concept of “nat. economics loses all meaning. It is the state that creates the conditions for any economic activity. It:
- regulates the activities of economic entities. The state machine creates the "rules of the game" and acts as the supreme arbiter, who tirelessly monitors the "players" and punishes them for violating the rules;
- collects taxes in order to create and maintain people's "goods" (medicine, education, etc.), as well as "pull up" those who are lagging behind. For example, through large taxes collected from big businesses, the government can subsidize small businesses;
- ensures the stability of the monetary unit and does everything possible to ensure that exports and imports are approximately equal (the trade balance was close to zero);
- fights unemployment and tries to minimize inflation.
Territorial division of the national economy
According to the territorial features of the national economy, it is customary to subdivide into:
- zones in which certain "fiscal" conditions are created for economic activity. These are territories partially free from tax collections, or areas where the indicated activity is allowed (or prohibited) (gambling, placement of harmful enterprises);
- complexes with a certain material and production base (in the Russian Federation this is the same West Siberian complex for the extraction and transportation of gas and oil).
Resources of the national economy
National economy consists of a resource base. It includes:
- human resources. They are formed from individuals with certain qualifications, education and purchasing power;
- capital (various tangible and intangible liquid assets: real estate and movable property, shares, bonds, bank accounts);
- Natural resources. These include minerals, favorable climate, good fertile soils.
Sectors of the national economy
The national economy is divided into tangible and intangible components:
Material components
- industrial production;
- agricultural sector;
- trade relations (purchase and sale, barter);
- vehicles, as well as communications (telephone, Internet, air, water and other means of communication);
- public utilities.
Intangible Components
- provision of various services (eg legal aid, entertainment industry);
- education system;
- creative and scientific work as well as sports;
- health care (a network of polyclinics and hospitals).
Chapter two. Patterns of the development of an open economy. §3. Development of the national economy: evolutionary and revolutionary stages.
The development of the national economy takes place in two forms, which correspond to two stages of development. The evolutionary stage is characterized by the fact that the structure and functioning of the economy remain virtually unchanged, since changes in the components and relationships on the scale of the national economy are insignificant. The revolutionary stage (jump, catastrophe, phase transition, bifurcation point) takes much less time compared to the evolutionary one, but its role can hardly be overestimated: it is this stage that ensures the transition of the economy to a new (but not necessarily higher) level of development, the choice of its development path ( attractor), resulting in a sharp change in the structure of the economy and the mechanism of its functioning.
The changes themselves at the bifurcation point occur quite quickly, but are prepared during the evolutionary stage by numerous economic and non-economic fluctuations, which are first suppressed, but, having gone beyond certain limits, gain strength and provide a jump.
Fluctuations of any system, including the economy, play the role of driving forces for development, so their study is one of the necessary stages in studying the development of the national economy. Fluctuations can be divided into external and internal. Previously, researchers either abstracted from external influences and focused on internal ones (K. Marx, J. Schumpeter (footnote 1)), or, conversely, proceeded from external fluctuations (L. Walras, A. Marshall (footnote 2)). This was explained by the specifics of the subject of the research: the study of equilibrium, for example, implies the absence of internal incentives for change, and the study of the dynamics of society prompts one to turn to its internal forces. In the modern period, when the realization has come that equilibrium is only a short moment in the process of economic movement, it has become obvious that both external and internal factors have an impact on the national economy.
The sensitivity of the national economy to fluctuations, its vulnerability is the greater, and stability is the less, the less diversified its structure is. The same, other things being equal, is the influence of the country's territory: the larger it is, the less its sensitivity to fluctuations. However, the relationship between the degree of diversification and the territory of the country is not linear. Up to a certain point, both a high level of diversification and large areas owned by a country can increase the stability of its economic system. But beyond certain limits, another process begins: with the country's desire to produce more and more goods, including the nomenclature, the economy gradually becomes closed, which is not good for it (except for the good of sustainability in itself, which turns over time into sustainability). stagnation) does not promise; the same applies to the territory: too large a territory makes the country less manageable and reduces its "resistance" to fluctuations.
Internal economic fluctuations include fluctuations in income, demand, supply, prices, interest rates, crop yields, investments, the rate and mass of profits, innovations, credit conditions, the release of radically new products, fluctuations in stock prices, the emergence or bankruptcy of large firms, the implementation large projects, strengthening or weakening competition, as well as delays in information and changes in cash flows.
A large number of economic fluctuations allows us to conclude that it is not worth looking for a single source and driving force of development. A single factor cannot explain how development occurs. Each specific process is caused by an individual set of many possible fluctuations, especially since each fluctuation is connected with other threads of not only direct, but also feedback.
Up to certain limits, the national economy can neutralize, "quench" fluctuations of a different nature, which is facilitated by the stability of its structure in the evolutionary period, primarily the stability of economic institutions. Therefore, it would be a mistake to assert, following D. Robertson (footnote 3), that changes in any direction can give the system a push and cause cumulative processes. Only fluctuations that have reached a certain strength will have a noticeable impact on the national economy. It is these fluctuations that can push it to the bifurcation point and cause self-organizing processes or organizing influences of the environment.
Table 4. External fluctuations of the national economy
| Medium type | fluctuations |
|---|---|
| 1. External economic environment |
|
| 2. external and internal natural environment |
|
| 3. external and internal social environment |
|
| 4. state |
|
* Hopes, expectations, fear, optimism, idealization of the past state, etc. (see: Zdravomyslov A.G. Sociology of conflict. M., 1994. P.62).
** For the first time, K. Popper attributed ideas to economic fluctuations. An example of such an influence can be called the ideas of Marxism, which influenced not only the economic life of the socialist countries, but the whole world as a whole (see: Popper K. Open society ... V.2. P.128). Of course, the relationship between ideas and economic life is mutual: not only economic life is influenced by ideas, but ideas are often its product.
In addition to fluctuations that are self-decaying or neutralized by the national economy, there are also cumulative fluctuations, the resulting effects of which gradually accumulate in the economy and also contribute to the onset of a jump. Among the cumulative fluctuations, multiplicative and accelerating fluctuations should be especially distinguished (in this division, the palm belongs to economic theory). Moreover, the latter should include not only a change in investment and income, but also demand, prices, interest, profit, debt.
When the values of the fluctuating parameters exceed the critical values and the power of the stabilizing systems, there comes a moment when an arbitrarily small change in the parameters leads to an abrupt transition of the economy to a qualitatively different state. Thus, a bifurcation point comes - the moment of branching of the options for the development of the economy, in which it is the most distant from the state of equilibrium.
The theory of disequilibrium should be the main subject of economic theory, not abstracting from the most significant phenomena of economic life - entrepreneurship, credit, profit, interest, capital accumulation, unemployment, inflation, cyclicality, real processes in the sphere of monetary circulation. It is this theory, in addition to explaining the phenomenon of development, that can fill with real content the categories of profit, interest, capital accumulation, which are largely formal in equilibrium theory, and give a meaningful interpretation of Keynes's theory (footnote 4) . The theory of disequilibrium should be based precisely on reality, and not on the unrealistic premises on which the theory of equilibrium is built.
The disequilibrium of the economy can be judged by peculiar "indicators", which are: the presence of profit, interest, entrepreneurship, capital accumulation processes, monopoly, inflation, unemployment, crises, underloading of production capacities, openness of the economy, etc.
Many, if not most, indicators of disequilibrium are at the same time factors in its establishment and maintenance. The latter can also include: - change money supply in the country;
- credit;
- change in interest on deposits and interest rates on loans;
- change in prices (with a coefficient of elasticity of demand or supply at a price not equal to one);
- transactions at non-equilibrium prices;
- inflexibility of prices;
- state intervention in economic life;
- change in the volume and nature of the resources used;
- changing the structure of actualized needs, the degree and methods of their satisfaction;
- change in the physical or cost composition of aggregate demand or supply;
- population growth;
- the presence of a significant share of irrationality in the behavior of economic entities;
- the imperfection of knowledge of economic entities about the state of the market at a given point in time, and even more so - in subsequent ones;
- change in the volume and direction of investments and the volume and methods of storing savings;
- change in profits and/or costs (including transaction costs);
- mass introduction of new equipment and technology of production and provision of services;
- change in the volume, physical and cost composition of the country's exports and imports;
- the presence of time lags between acts of sale, savings and investments;
- exchange speculation;
- imperfect nature of the market;
- the presence of competition that constantly encourages manufacturers to change the nature of their behavior, to produce all new types of products, to produce innovations;
- intervention of the state, as a rule, also contributes to the strengthening of disequilibrium;
- change in political and social organization.
The main role in strengthening the nonequilibrium belongs to the mechanism of positive feedback. The positive feedback loop amplifies even weak fluctuations to gigantic ones, thereby contributing to a qualitative jump in the system. In macroeconomics, two types of positive feedbacks are known - the investment multiplier discovered by J.M. Keynes, and the accelerator principle described by J.M. Clark. The presence of only these two mechanisms, subject to a relatively large volume of investment or an increase in demand, makes the economy non-equilibrium. In fact, there are many more such mechanisms. In particular, these include cost-push inflation, inflationary expectations, and deficit expectations.
Disequilibrium can be conditionally divided into two types: functional disequilibrium and disequilibrium that generates development, which differ both in the strength of the fluctuations that cause and maintain them and, therefore, in the degree of distance from the hypothetical equilibrium state, as well as in the consequences: the first entails a slight change in the behavior of economic subjects and macroeconomic indicators within the existing structure, and the second causes a bifurcation point, which leads to a qualitative leap - development, expressed in a more or less rapid and strong restructuring of the structure of the economy and, as a result, its functioning, as well as significant changes in macroeconomic indicators.
The forces noted above can lead to both "functional" and "bifurcation" disequilibrium, depending on how much they change, and on the inclusion of mechanisms like multiplication and acceleration. We are primarily interested in the second type of disequilibrium, which leads to a jump in development, as well as the processes occurring in the economy during the passage of the bifurcation point, and post-bifurcation phenomena.
The change in the path of development occurs quickly - abruptly. The reasons for the spasmodic development of the economy are mainly related to the following. Firstly, the dynamics of the national economy depends on the accumulation of capital, and it is of a spasmodic nature: the depreciation deductions accumulated in the depreciation fund may not be used for a long time or only an insignificant part of them may be used, and the capitalization of most of these funds occurs simultaneously and represents a fluctuation that affects the entire system. Of course, this process is accelerated and facilitated by credit, leasing and renting, which, in turn, act as an additional fluctuating force and partly explain the reason for the shortening of the phases of the medium-term and Kondratieff cycles. Secondly, scientific discoveries and inventions appear in leaps and bounds. Thirdly, due to the above and other reasons, the introduction of new equipment and technology is also extremely uneven: innovations appear immediately in large numbers, which was also noted by J. Schumpeter. These processes lead to the emergence of contradictions in the national economy, which are resolved at the bifurcation point by the transition to a new attractor.
At the moment of the bifurcation point, serious changes take place in the economy: the structure of the system, proportions, and then, in the course of adaptation to the new structure, the mechanism of its functioning change (of course, a change in the behavior of individual economic entities is already observed at the moment of bifurcation). In the structure, the connections are the first to "take a hit". A typical example of bifurcation is strong crises of overproduction: the bankruptcy of even a small number of firms means the loss of many established ties. If bankruptcies are massive, the national economy as a whole is simplified: its composition is leveled, the number of ties is reduced.
The breakdown of the existing structure and the change in the habitual behavior of economic entities lead the economy into a state of chaos, which contributes (see Chapter 1, § 2) to bringing the economy to a new round of development. The self-organization of the economy, generated by chaos, attracts one or another attractor, adaptation to which constitutes an evolutionary stage of development. It is at the point of bifurcation that the process of transition of the old quality of the economy into the new is born, but the very combination of elements of the old and new quality creates chaos.
There are grounds to assert that the bifurcation points are provoked by deep and protracted crises of overproduction and either coincide with periods of crises that, due to the action of synchronization mechanisms, break out in closely related national economies almost simultaneously, or immediately follow them. This is confirmed by the fact that the deepest crises of the twentieth century. (1929-1933 and 1973-1974) led to major changes in the structure of the economies of the countries covered by them, the functioning of national economies in general, the behavior of economic entities, the methods and direction of state regulation of the economy, etc. Perhaps the bifurcation points of the economy are associated with large cycles conjuncture N.D. Kondratiev. In favor of this assumption is the fact that the periods separating two adjacent bifurcation points in the twentieth century. are approximately equal to forty years, and also that they fall on periods of transition from one great cycle to another. An additional argument can be the regularity we noticed regarding the emergence of totalitarian systems: at bifurcation points, development options branch off, in particular, the economy “makes a choice” between openness and closeness. Last type branch almost always involves totalitarianism, and in the twentieth century. the emergence of most totalitarian systems, as well as authoritarian regimes of government, falls on the crisis or post-crisis years - the periods of the early 30s. and 1973-1976 It was during these periods that totalitarian tendencies originate in Japan, Italy, Germany (1933), the USSR (late 20s - early 30s), Chile (authoritarian regime, 1973), Kampuchea (1975) , Vietnam (1976).
Often the bifurcation points of the economy are accompanied by scientific revolutions. In particular, in economic theory, the crisis of 1873 gave rise to a marginalist revolution (1870 - 90s), the crisis of 1929 - 1933. - Keynesian, 1973-1974 - a surge of interest in neoclassicism, monetarism and the practical application of their recommendations. Perhaps the economic situation itself is pushing for the development of certain problems, because if there are no major problems, no one undertakes to solve them (footnote 5) .
The chaos observed at the point of bifurcation, in addition to the disruption of the structure, often entails a mismatch, desynchronization of many processes in the national and world economy. It takes several years to restore coherence and synchrony. Such a process in the world economy was observed, for example, after the bifurcation point of the early 1930s, which dragged on for the war years. the economic medium-term cycle became asynchronous and only in the 60s. became synchronous again.
If the asynchrony of the cyclical movement of the economy is not a particular problem, then the inconsistency of the processes taking place in the national economy is fraught with the threat of its destruction: the chaos of the bifurcation point can give rise not only to self-organization, but also push the economy into the region of a strange attractor. The possibility of such a development of events makes state regulation of the economy especially urgent at this moment. On the other hand, it is precisely at this moment that regulation can be more dangerous than ever: any influence of the control system (due to the fact that at the bifurcation point the smallest fluctuation can be decisive and cause a jump to another attractor) can lead to a wave of fluctuations in the economy and push her into a losing attractor and even destroy her. Therefore, government regulation in the area of the bifurcation point should be very soft, careful and meet the following requirements.
1. State regulation should be resonant to the changes taking place in the economy, its nature and, to some extent, the past. Society cannot really skip the natural phases of development, but it can make the transition less painful.
2. It must be done on time. What is possible today will not be tomorrow, and this must be taken into account. Processes that regulators have forgotten about can later get out of control and cause irreversible changes. Unfortunately, the concept of time is practically excluded from many economic studies. They forget about this in practice, hence the huge number of untimely, and, therefore, ineffective decisions. One example is the adoption in 1996 by the Central Bank of Russia of several successive decisions to reduce the refinancing rate and reduce the yield of GKOs. These decisions had to be made in 1992-1993, when the national economy was in dire need of loans, and commercial banks as a result of the policy of the Central Bank, they established very high interest rates on loans and enriched themselves at the expense of GKOs, rather than investing in the national economy. Thus, several years, during which it was possible to stop the recession, were missed. Of course, this principle is of particular importance at the point of bifurcation, when the state can change the trajectory of development. Moreover, the latter is possible almost exclusively at the bifurcation point. The idea of a "Great Leap Forward", which was attempted in China under Mao Zedong, is not so absurd, if only we keep in mind that the national economy, like any other system, can not go to any state, and if the first two principle. It was a mistake to demand from the Chinese economy what it could not give in principle - the regulation was not resonant, moreover, the time for the implementation of the "jump" idea was chosen poorly - the bifurcation point had long since passed.
3. The regulatory system must establish feedback with the economy, otherwise the first one will generate destructive fluctuations or contribute to the degradation of the economy.
4. The state must rely on economic entities that ensure the transition to a winning attractor - they play the role of a link, grasping which, you can stretch the entire chain. For example, at the bifurcation point of the 30s. such a link was the state, which stimulated demand according to Keynesian recipes, and in the 70s. this role was played by entrepreneurship, especially small business.
The bifurcation point provides the economy with a wide choice of development paths. The notion of socialism and capitalism or the plan and the market as the only alternatives to development is not true, as is the idea of progress as the only direction in the development of the economy and society as a whole, and complication as its result. The English sociologist T. Shanin noted that what is inconsistent with the idea of progress and uniformity is thrown aside (footnote 6), and only a few recognize the alternativeness of the process of social development, remembering that what has been achieved by one generation may well lose the next (footnote 7).
In reality, at the point of bifurcation, the economy can be attracted not only by the attractor of progress, but also by regression, can either increase or decrease the degree of its complexity and organization, become an open or closed system, and, finally, can collapse. And each of these scenarios has many variations.
The national economy as a science includes the following components:
- 1. Object and subject of science.
- 2. Methodological tools.
- 3. The subject of science.
The object of the national economy is the economic system of the country, its constituent level components.
The subject of the national economy is the socio-economic processes of reproduction, which are manifested in the volumes (scales), rates (declines or rises) and proportions of development.
Tools of the national economy - methodological approaches to the analysis of the state, factors, problems, patterns, development trends and measures and means of preparing and implementing economic macroeconomic decisions developed on this basis.
The subject of the national economy - the governing bodies of the national economy, its regions and industries.
The formation of the national economy as a special area of domestic science began in the second half of the 19th - early 20th centuries. In Russia, the connection between general economic theory and national specifics initially took the form of an adaptation of Western theoretical experience to Russian conditions.
The methodology for studying the national economy was laid down by Fr. List, a 19th-century German economist. He contrasted the national (real) political economy with A. Smith's "hypothetical" classical political economy. Fr. List thought:
- a particular nation can improve its economic situation in real world conditions;
- · national political economy deals with the productive forces, and the "hypothetical" one is limited to the theory of value exchange;
- · freedom of trade - an instrument of the dominant economy against less developed countries, hinders the creation of a competitive industry;
- · The economic interest of the nation is fundamental in the organization of economic activity in the country, in the implementation of this interest a large role belongs to the state.
The methodology of studying the national economy, adopted in world science, is also associated with the names of German scientists of the historical school. Almost 100 years ago, Gustav von Schmoller (1838-1917) formulated the genetic approach to the study of economics. Ethnic and even anthropological characteristics were singled out among the factors that determine the economic appearance of the country. G. Schmoller drew attention to economic psychology, which later became a key approach in market research. He believed that in economic policy there can be no rules and solutions suitable for all countries and times.
Werner Sombart (1863-1941) considered the propensity for entrepreneurship in connection with national specifics. He advocated state regulation of the economy through the control and planning of industrial development.
W. Sombart proposed typification of economic systems and periodization economic history, which are based on the following postulates:
- · "life of the spirit" determines the national way of thinking and economic orientation;
- The psychology of entrepreneurship includes such personality traits as dynamism, risk appetite, ideological freedom, and the ability to start from scratch after a defeat.
V. Sombart divides entrepreneurs into “conquerors” (self-confidence, perseverance, will), “organizers” (the ability to connect people in the labor process), “merchants” (the ability to win trust, win over, induce actions). He associates the propensity for entrepreneurship of one kind or another with national identity. Thinking over possible options social development, W. Sombart insists on the need for state control and planning of industrial progress. The ideal for Germany was the system of state capitalism. In 1915, W. Sombart's book "Heroes and Merchants" was published, where the Anglo-Saxon merchants were opposed by the heroic German nation.
Adjacent to the historical school, the sociologist Max Weber (1864-1920) studied the impact of religion on the economic life of peoples and countries. His works - "The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism", "Economic Ethics of World Religions" - gained wide popularity. Noteworthy are the arguments of M. Weber about two principles - mystical (passive contemplation of events) and ascetically active (transformation of the world). In world religions, both principles are present, but in various combinations. The ascetic emphasis is especially significant in Protestantism - the religion of the first American settlers and European (British) entrepreneurs of the 18th century. It becomes a symbol of rational behavior, forms the "spirit of capitalism". Shepherds teach that God predetermines human destinies, but energy and success are evidence of chosenness. Thus, entrepreneurship received a non-material incentive to be active.
Many researchers believe that the supporting structure of the national economy is the traditions and mentality that determine the model of state regulation and tools. economic policy. At the same time, like other branches of knowledge, the national economy includes a set of axioms and evidence suitable for analysis in any specific conditions. In this sense, it cannot be national, just as American physics or German mathematics cannot exist. Prices are everywhere determined by supply and demand, and with the growth of income there is a decrease in the part consumed and an increase in its accumulated part.
The power of national specifics in economic life is great, but in the variety of economic customs, traditions and specific forms, general patterns are visible that are the subject of economic analysis.
Each national economy is specific. None, even the most “good” and generally accepted in the scientific community, basic theoretical model can be directly applied to economic analysis and forecast, but requires the development of more detailed models based on it, taking into account many specific variables in a particular economy.
For example, the uniqueness of Russia does not lie in the fact that our country follows its own, “third” path. The peculiarity of Russia is in the level of economic and social development, in the degree of its approximation to the state described in one model or another. This determines the ratio of the general and the national when using theoretical models for the Russian economy.
The main specific features of the Russian economy:
- · underdevelopment of market relations (market infrastructure, institutional environment);
- Periodically there is a rollback to pre-existing forms of relationships;
- The system of public administration is slowly changing.
Every country inherits historical traditions economic development of the nation.
social reproduction. Circulation of income and products;
System of macroeconomic indicators. GDP and how to measure it;
national wealth. Industry structure. Shadow economy.
National economy - a set of economic processes in which all firms and sectors of management participate in their interconnection and interdependence ... The main economic entities are the household sector; business sector (private business); government sector; abroad…
The functioning of the national economy reflects the totality of the reproduction process. It is schematically reflected in the model of the circulation of real and cash flows or the circulation of products (goods and services) and cash income and expenses - see the circuit diagram ...
The patterns of development of the national economy presuppose the presence goals of this development - supreme or ultimate; long-term; short term...
Ultimate - ensuring optimal conditions for the life of society and each of its members ... Socio-economic model of society ... - in Russia: a socially oriented market economy ...
Long term – implementation of the chosen socio-economic model of society…
short-term - specification of a long-term goal for each given moment ... - the problem of the so-called. goal tree...
The structure of the national economy is complex and diverse:
production and branch;
social;
regional;
foreign trade …
The production and industry structure includes three main sectors:
primary - mining, agriculture, forestry, fisheries ...
secondary - manufacturing industry
tertiary - services
! The share of each sector in GDP in different countries is different ...
! The most important task for Russia is to rapidly develop the “high technology” industries…
! Another important task is the development of infrastructure, both industrial and non-industrial…
The state and dynamics of the national economy is characterized by a set of macroeconomic indicators.
The main indicators are GDP and GNP ...
GDP - the market value of all final goods and services produced in a year by all residents of a given country ...
GNP - the market value of all final goods and services produced by the owners of factors of production, both in their own country and in other countries ...
GDPGNP …
Three methods are used to measure the volume of GDP:
By expenditure (end-use method)
By income (distributive method)
By value added (production method)
personal consumption spending on current consumption and durable goods
private gross investment
public procurement of goods and services
net exports of goods and services
profits, % on capital, small owners; as well as depreciation and indirect taxes…
the number of market economy entities that produce products ...
This method is used to avoid repeating, etc. accounts...
Modern SNA [UN, 1993]:
GDP - depreciation =
NNP - indirect taxes =
ND - 
+ transfer payments =
LD general - individual taxes =
RF - disposable income
The positive dynamics of GDP is the most important indicator of the economic development of the country, its increase national wealth.
national wealth - the totality of benefits accumulated by society as a result of production activities for a certain period of time.
The dynamics of GDP is negatively affected by the so-called. shadow economy.
Shadow economy - the sphere of economic activity, not taken into account by official statistics; it's a criminal economy. Its main features:
covert activity...
coverage of all phases of social reproduction ...
tax evasion...
appropriation of other people's property and redistribution of income in favor of criminal elements ...
Shadow economy legal... and illegal...
The main reason for the growth of the shadow economy is errors in the economic reform of Russia:
one-time price liberalization;
mass forced privatization;
the rapid "opening" of the economy;
hard tax pressure on the manufacturer;
restrictive monetary policy;
the asocial nature of market transformations in general ...
Economic growth and cyclical development of the economy
Economic growth: essence, indicators, factors;
Economic cycle: characteristic features and periodicity;
Stabilization policy of the state.
Law of age needs → growing economy; it has a greater ability to solve socio-economic problems both within the country and in relations with other countries.
The economic growth - quantitative and qualitative improvement of production, increase in GDP. Its goal is to improve the standard of living of society ...
Indicators (measurements) of economic growth are the growth rate and growth rate of GDP (GNP), as well as the growth rate and growth rate of GDP (GNP) per capita.
The dynamics of economic growth is ambiguous; it can be negative, zero, positive...
GDP is the result of the use of production - labor L; capital K; natural resources N.
GDP = f - production function
The main factors of economic growth are extensive and intensive.
* Extensive growth criterion - unchanged average labor productivity:
, where , - in the present and previous periods
, - the number of employees in the corresponding periods
The cyclical nature of the reproduction process in England at the end of the 19th century
* Intensive growth criterion – increase in average production labor:
Or the excess of GDP growth in relation to. Towards an increase in the number of people employed in the national economy
Extensive and intensive growth factors are referred to as supply factors, which create only conditions for economic growth ... Real economic growth is impossible without the expansion of aggregate demand, which acts as demand factor… income level of the population… export growth (external demand)
Many models of economic growth are known: neo-Keynesian (Domar, Harrod); neoclassical (Cobb-Douglas, Solow). In the Solow model, in particular, the so-called golden rule accumulation. It shows the rate of saving that maximizes consumption for a given rate of population growth and technology unchanged.
Differential, frequent indicators of economic growth:
L is the productivity of living labor and the labor intensity of products ...
K is the productivity of capital (capital productivity) and the capital intensity of products ...
N - material return (resource return) and resource intensity of products ...
Let's look at the production function again - -
The share of L in GDP is 75-80%
The share of K in GDP is 15-18%
The share of N in GDP is 5-7%
Modern technologies make it possible to use natural resources only by 1..3% - this is a huge reserve for economic growth ...
A real growing economy develops according to the law of the cycle - the law of alternation at certain intervals of ups and downs GDP. Alternating trend - GDP growth. Between the "peaks" of production and employment, there are noticeable declines ...
Phase 1 - recession, contraction, recession, crisis
Phase 2 - depression, stagnation, bottom
Phase 3 - revitalization, expansion
Phase 4 - rise, boom
... and everything repeats again ...
The duration of cycles (waves) are different:
Integral reason the cyclical nature of the market economy - the diverse and contradictory influence of many market and non-market factors ...
External factors: wars, revolutions, political upheavals; discovery of large deposits of natural resources; development of new territories; Achievements of NTD…
Internal factors: the physical life of the fixed capital; investment in the economy; dynamics C and S; change in percentage bank rates; operation of the law of reduction before. the efficiency of the factors of production used ...
... I. Schumpeter "Economic cycles" - 1939 - development of the theory of "long" waves ...
Cyclicity reflects the instability of the development of a market economy, imbalance, is a socio-economic disease ... The stabilization policy of the state ...
Stabilization policy is a set of measures aimed at stabilizing the economy at the level of full employment or potential output. The most important element of the stabilization policy is aggregate demand management . During a crisis and depression, stabilization policy is aimed at stimulating aggregate demand - this is the traditional Keynesian approach.
The development of the national economy of each country of the world community, as well as the entire world economy, is carried out by d a series of laws . The most important of them are;
■ law of value "
■ the law of international competition;
■ the law of uneven economic development of states!
■ the law of internationalization of production.
Essence the law of value is that the price of goods is determined by the cost of work. Its international form is manifested in the fact that the price of a product on the world market depends on several factors:
■ medium intensity labor on the scale of the world economy and the intensity of national labor in the countries of the world;
■ average labor productivity in the world economy and national labor productivity;
■ the level of complexity of labor - the more difficult, the more expensive.
The influence of the national cost of labor on the international cost depends on the proportion of goods produced in a particular country in relation to their global production.
The laws of international competition is the main source of development of the world economic system, contributes to the development of scientific and technological progress, the growth of labor productivity, and the improvement of product quality. The main objects of international competition are world trade and sales markets. The subjects of competition are national and multinational companies (transnational corporations (TNCs), individual states and international organizations. Competition is between TNCs, within TNCs, between various representative offices (foreign affiliates) and firms. International Institute Development and Governance, the World Economic Forum (WEF) define 12 most important factors of a country's competitiveness
■ quality of institutions;
■ infrastructure;
■ macroeconomic stability;
■ health and primary education;
■ higher education and vocational training;
■ efficiency of the goods and services market;
■ labor market efficiency;
■ development financial market;
■ technological market;
■ the size of the domestic market;
■ business competitiveness;
■ innovative potential.
Of particular importance in improving the competitiveness of the country's economy is economic management. For the post-socialist countries, this is especially important, given the unsuitability of the personnel of their enterprises for an offensive strategy in the competitive struggle in the world market. At the same time, those countries in which domestic demand is oriented primarily to the products of domestic enterprises win in this struggle.
The law of uneven economic development states due to a number of historical reasons:
■ different availability of natural resources;
■ economic and geographical position;
■ the pace and timing of the capital accumulation process.
The uneven economic development of states also affects the uneven development of the sectors of the world economy (those countries that have specialized in inefficient industries, of course, are in a worse condition). Enterprises within industries also develop unevenly. The law of uneven economic development of states operates not only globally, but also within individual economic groupings and even TNCs (between their various national representations).
Law of internationalization of production manifests itself in the international geographical division of labor, which in its development comes from the general cooperation of countries in the production of products in subject and detailed specialization and cooperation. This leads to cost savings of socially useful labor, material and technical resources and an increase in national labor productivity.
In addition to the general economic laws listed above, the development and location of the world economy are subject to such patterns
1. Proportionalities in the development of components of territorial socio-economic systems.
2. Rationalization of territorial and economic ties (economic and geographical severity).
3. Territorial concentration of productive forces (spatial agglomeration).
4. Territorial differentiation.
5. Territorial integration.
Through action first regularity the most rational exchange of energy, matter, information between the social, economic, technical and natural components of territorial socio-economic systems - from individual regions - to the global world system as a whole is ensured. Under the influence of this pattern, optimal proportions of the development of industries are achieved. National economy individual countries and the global economy as a whole.
Influenced second regularity the process of selecting profitable counterparties for economic cooperation is carried out (economic and geographical attraction of technological links, sources of raw materials and their processing, labor resources and places of application of labor, etc.). It determines the international economic and industrial-technological cooperation of countries and peoples.
Action third regularity is that after reaching a certain level of accumulation in certain regions and countries of the world of production capacity, capital, material, technical and labor resources, processes of agglomeration (concentration) of production activity begin to develop in them, which are practically not subject to management. They form large industrial hubs, agro-industrial complexes, industrial regions of the world (the Ruhr region of Germany, the North-East of the USA, the Donbass and the Dnieper region in Ukraine, etc.).
Action fourth regularity lies in the fact that under the influence of natural, social, economic, demographic and other factors, conditions are created for the international specialization of countries in the production of certain goods and services within the global geographical division of labor (for example, Switzerland is the most important banking region, Australia is the largest region sheep breeding and wool production).
Through action fifth regularity the interrelation of settlement systems with the development and location of production, non-production enterprises, as well as the creation and development of rational technological and economic links that form international territorial production complexes and combines on the basis of regional economic integration are ensured.
In the development of the world economy, the observance of certain principles is clearly observed, which means the economic policy deliberately carried out by individual states and the world community, aimed at implementing the identified laws and patterns in the development of the world and national economies.
The main principles in the development and location of the world economy is principle of economy of socially useful costs (according to A. Weber), profit maximization principle (according to A. Lesha), as well as ecological principle of rational use and protection of the human environment .
Other key principles include:
■ rationality of production location;
■ taking into account the international geographical division of labor;
■ maintaining ecological balance;
■ limitations of centralism.
The principle of rational location of production It consists in the maximum consideration of the action of factors of production (land, labor, capital, entrepreneurship). The economic content of the principle is to ensure the high efficiency of the functioning of the national economy due to the advantages of the available factors of production in a particular country of the world. In practice, it is implemented by bringing materials-intensive, energy-intensive, water-containing industries closer to sources of raw materials, fuel (energy) and water. At the same time, savings on socially useful expenses should be carried out not only on transportation costs, but also on the integrated use of natural resources; the approximation of labor-intensive industries to areas where cheap labor is concentrated, makes it possible to effectively use labor resources, taking into account their gender and age structure and qualifications; bringing the mass production of low-transportable products closer to the places of their consumption (furniture, reinforced concrete products and structures, wall materials, etc.).
The principle of accounting for the international division of labor is that the state should strive to develop such industries and types of production for which it has the best conditions, and whose products are in demand on the world market. The country should promote the development of such industries through a system of state benefits. At the same time, the state trade policy should liberalize the import of those goods that are not produced in the country due to natural conditions or big expenses.
Some countries build their entire economy on the export of one or two or three goods. Such an economy is called export-oriented. For example, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Brunei live mainly due to the export of oil, Senegal - due to the export of peanuts, Central American countries - the export of bananas, Jamaica - cane sugar, bauxite, etc. An export-oriented economy is typical for developing countries, and do not have, as a rule, a capacious domestic market. At a higher stage of economic development, countries are moving to the development of import-substituting industries (primarily in basic industries), whose products have a wide domestic demand, which allows them to get rid of their imports (large Latin American countries, countries of Southeast Asia, etc.).
The principle of maintaining ecological balance. The economy of all countries (as well as world economy in general) should be balanced in most parameters, however, if this causes environmental tension, then it cannot be considered optimal from an economic point of view. All other principles must be subordinated to the principle of ecological balance, therefore it can be called the principle of the ecological imperative. This principle eventually formed the basis of the Concept of sustainable development
The concept of sustainable development became a logical consequence of the process of greening scientific knowledge and socio-economic development, began rapidly in the 1970s pp.
In 1987, the International Commission on Environment and Development (ICNSD) compiled a report entitled "Our Common Future". It emphasized the need for sustainable development of a world state that could "meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." The new triune concept of sustainable (environmental-socio-economic) development is laid at the heart of the activities of the ICNDS, the main factors of which include:
■ a political system that ensures the participation of the broad masses of the population in decision-making;
■ the economic system, which ensures expanded reproduction and technical progress on its own basis, is constantly being strengthened;
■ a social system that provides relief from tensions that arise when there is inharmonious economic development;
■ production system that preserves the ecological resource base;
■ technological system that provides a constant search for new solutions;
■ international system, contributes to the stability of trade and financial relations;
■ an administrative system that is flexible enough and capable of self-correcting.
In the future, the concept of sustainable development was deepened at the UN Conference on Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The conference statement defines sustainable development as "a strategy implemented in such a way as to ensure that the development and environmental needs of both present and future generations are met equally." Since then, this concept has been widely included in political terminology and scientific use.
As an official doctrine, sustainable development has been adopted by most countries of the world. The UN World Summit on Sustainable Development (an intergovernmental, non-governmental and scientific forum) in 2002 confirmed the commitment of the entire world community to the ideas of sustainable development for the long-term satisfaction of basic human needs while maintaining the life support systems of the planet Earth.
The principle of limiting centralism. Centralism in politics and economics at the first stages of the development of society has, as a rule, a positive impact, as evidenced by the history of European states and the USSR. However, over time, centralism turns into a brake on the development of productive forces. This was intuitively understood in his time by the head of the USSR, N. S. Khrushchev, who replaced sectoral management and planning of the national economy with regional (territorial) ones with the help of the created economic councils. Many provisions of the regional economic policy pursued in the late 1950s and early 1960s in former USSR, as well as planned farming, are borrowed and successfully implemented in the USA, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Spain and other countries. In the countries of the European Union, the “Concept of Regions” emerged and was recognized, according to which more and more powers for the development of regional economies are transferred from central authorities local authorities, i.e. local governments.
Basic principles of modern regional economic policy:
■ advantage of the region's interests over the interests of industries, individual enterprises and organizations;
■ comprehensive consideration of economic, technological, ethnic, environmental and socio-demographic prerequisites and factors of development and distribution of the productive forces of the world economy by regions;
■ the priority of an intensive, resource-saving approach to the deployment of productive forces and the limitation of material-intensive industries;
■ gradual alignment of the levels of socio-economic development of the regions of the world.
A feature of the world economy is its integrity, which is ensured by the mechanism international relations. Integrity has developed due to interrelated processes - the formation of new independent states and the integration of their economies, under the influence of which the modern political map of the world was formed. This integrity is supported by the activities of international organizations and powerful TNCs.
Universal connection between national economies carry out international economic relations.
International Economic Relations (IER) - complex economic relations between individual countries, their regional associations, as well as individual enterprises (transnational, multinational corporations) in the world economy.
In general, the concept of "world economy" as a set of national economies and international economic relations can be reflected in the form of a mathematical model:
Where NOT- national economies; IEO- international economic relations.
- The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 (Electronic Re eo urse). - Way of access www3. weforum.org/docs/WEF_GLobalCompetitivenes8Report_2012 13.pdf