Basement and cellar
How to find the average consumer price index. What is the consumer price index

How to find the average consumer price index. What is the consumer price index

The change in prices in the economy is given by various price dynamics indicators— producer price indices, gross domestic product deflator, consumer price index. When people talk about inflation, they usually mean the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change over time in the cost of a set of food, non-food goods and services consumed by an average household (i.e., the cost of a “consumer basket”). The choice of the CPI as the main indicator of inflation is related to its role as an important indicator of the dynamics of the cost of living of the population. In addition, the CPI has a number of characteristics that make it convenient for widespread use - the simplicity and clarity of the construction methodology, the monthly frequency of calculation, and the speed of publication.

The periods for which the CPI is measured can vary. The most common comparisons are the level of consumer prices in a certain month of the year with their level in the previous month, the corresponding month of the previous year, December of the previous year.

Statistical monitoring of prices, necessary calculations and publication of CPI data in Russia is carried out by the Federal State Statistics Service.

Features of the Russian consumer basket

In Russia, as well as in emerging markets in general, a characteristic feature of the consumer basket is a rather high share of food products (36.5% in 2014). Their prices are highly volatile. To a large extent, inflation fluctuations in the food market are determined by changes in supply volumes, primarily the crop yield in our country and in the world, which is significantly dependent on weather conditions. Since the share of food products in the consumer basket is high, price fluctuations for them can have a significant impact on inflation in general.

Another feature of the Russian consumer basket used to calculate the CPI is the presence in it of goods and services, prices and tariffs for which are subject to administrative influence. Thus, the state regulates tariffs for a number of public utilities services, passenger transport, communications, and some others. In addition, prices for tobacco products, alcoholic products significantly depend on excise rates.

Consumer demand is satisfied by goods and services of both domestic and foreign production. There are no statistical data on the share of imports in the CPI, but an idea of it in terms of goods can be given by the share of imports in the structure of retail trade resources (in last years- about 44%). A significant share of merchandise imports in the consumer basket determines the significance of the impact of changes in the ruble exchange rate on inflation.

Inflation factors

Prices may rise faster or slower. In the first case, they speak of an increase in inflation, in the second, of its decrease. There are various reasons for the change in inflation. Let's consider them on the example of accelerating price growth. If the level of demand for goods and services exceeds the supply capacity to satisfy it, they speak of a pro-inflationary effect. demand side factors. In some cases, the outpacing growth in demand may be affected by loans that are too affordable and the accelerated growth of nominal incomes of economic entities. These sources of excess demand are often referred to as "monetary factors of inflation"- pressure on prices due to the creation of an excess amount of money.

Inflation can also grow when an imbalance in the market for a good or service arises due to insufficient suggestions, for example, due to crop failure, restrictions on the import of products from abroad, the actions of a monopolist.

Inflation can be caused by growth costs for the production and sale of a unit of output - due to the rise in the cost of raw materials, materials, components, the increase in the costs of enterprises for wages, taxes, interest payments and other costs. Rising costs may also lead to lower production volumes and, further, to the formation of additional pro-inflationary pressure due to insufficient supply.

The rise in prices for imported cost components may be due to both an increase in world prices and a depreciation of the national currency. In addition, the weakening of the national currency can directly affect the prices of final products imported from abroad. The overall effect of exchange rate changes on price movements is called "transfer effect" and is often considered as a separate factor of inflation.

Economic theory highlights as a special factor inflation expectations— Assumptions regarding the level of future inflation, formed by the subjects of the economy. The expected level of inflation is taken into account by producers when making decisions regarding the setting of prices for their own products, wage rates, production volumes and investments. Households' inflationary expectations affect their decisions about how much of their funds to save and how much to consume. The decisions of economic actors affect the supply and demand for goods and services and, ultimately, inflation.

Negative effects of high inflation

High inflation means a decrease in the purchasing power of the incomes of all economic entities, which negatively affects demand, economic growth, the standard of living of the population, and public sentiment. Impaired income reduces opportunities and undermines incentives to save, which hinders the formation of a sustainable financial basis for investment. In addition, high inflation is accompanied by increased uncertainty, which makes it difficult for economic actors to make decisions. All together, this negatively affects savings, consumption, production, investment, and, in general, the conditions for sustainable economic development.

Benefits of Price Stability

Price stability means maintaining low rates of growth in consumer prices, such that economic agents neglect when making decisions. In conditions of low and predictable inflation, the population is not afraid to save in the national currency for a long time, because they are sure that inflation will not devalue their deposits. Long-term savings, in turn, are a source of investment financing. In conditions of price stability, banks are ready to provide resources to borrowers for long periods at relatively low rates. Thus, price stability creates conditions for the growth of investment and, ultimately, for a sustainable economic development.

The consumer price index is calculated using the formula:

Price index = , where

P 1 - price 1990

P 0 - price 1970

Q 1 - quantity

Index (25x2)+(2x25)+(7x12)+(8x25)+(6x10)+(30x3)+(1.2x5)

= ———————————————————————— =

prices (10.6x2)+(0.6x25)+(2x12)+(3x25)+(2x10)+(0.2x5)

Task 12

Suppose that the consumer price index takes into account only three goods: food is - 0.35, housing - 0.20, manufactured goods - 0.45. Food prices increased by the end of the year by 15%, housing by 30%, and industrial goods prices fell by 3%. Determine the growth rate (level) of inflation for the year.

Solution

Nominal income index

Real income index=—————————————— x100%=

Consumer price index

= , hence real incomes fell by 11% (100-89).

Task 13

Based on the data in the table below:

Calculate: 1) the inflation rate for each year, 2) using the "rule of magnitude 70" determine the number of years it takes for prices to double.

Solution

Pace Year 2 Price Index – Year 1 Price Index

1. = ———————————————————— x 100%.

inflation price index 1st year

inflation rate

1st to 2nd year=

2nd to 3rd year=

3rd to 4th year =

Number of years needed for prices to double =

=—————————— , therefore:

inflation rate(%)

1) year; 2) years, 3) years.

Task 14

The real estate purchased in January 1995 for 3,000 den. units was sold in January 1998. Inflation by years was: 1995 - 20%, 1996 - 15%, 1997 -35%.

Determine: the selling price of the property, if known. That its owner as a result of this operation received a profit of 30%.

Solution

It is necessary to find out how much real estate cost in 1998 in accordance with the growth in real estate prices and inflation using the discount method.

New price adjusted for inflation = 300x(1+0.2) x (1+0.15)x (1+0.3) x (1+0.35) = 3000 x 1.2 x 1.15 x 1 .3 x 1.35 \u003d - 7265.7 monetary units.

If the owner wants to make a profit of 30%, then he must increase the new price by 30%, then the selling price should be 7265.7 x 1.3 = 9445.4 monetary units.

the owner will receive 2179.7 monetary units. profit (9445.4 - 7265.7)

Task 15

Suppose. What is produced and consumed 3 types of goods. The table shows the quantity (units) and the price for 1 unit in monetary units. each of them for 2 periods.

Calculate the Laspeyres index, Paasche index and Fisher index (1980 is the base period.

Solution

Laspeyres index is a price index with weights of the base period, i.e. as weights we take the amount of goods produced in 1980.

General view of the index

where and are the prices of the i-th good, respectively, in the base (0) and current (t) periods;

Q i 0 is the amount of the i-th good in the base period.

In this case

General view of the Paasche index (price index with current period weights)

, in this case

Both indexes show a decline in the cost of living, but to varying degrees.

The Fisher index averages the result.

Task 16

Property purchased in January 1995 for 3,000 den. was sold in January 1998. Inflation by years was: in 1995. - 10%, in 1996 - 15%, in 1997 - 20% and in 1998 -25%.

Determine the selling price of the property if it is known that its owner has made a profit of 28% as a result of this operation.

Solution

1. You need to find out how much real estate cost in 1997, taking into account inflation using the discount method:

New price = old price x (1+0.1) x (1+0.15) x (1+0.2) x(1+0.25)=

3000 x 1.1 x 1.15 x 1.2 x 1.25 = 5692.5 cash units

2. To get 28% profit, the seller must sell his property for 7286.4 den. (5692.5 x 1.28).

Problem 17

In a conditional economy, three goods are produced: brooms, felt boots and bicycles. Using the data given in the table, calculate the nominal and real GNP in 1990 and 1995, the deflator and the CPI, if 1990 is the base year.

How have the cost of living and the price level changed over this period?

Solution:

1) nominal GNP 1990 = real GNP 1990 (since this year is the base year) = 2 x 50 + 7x20 + 25x10 = 490

2) nominal GNP in 1995 = 3x45 + 8x15 + 20x15 = 555

3) real GNP in 1995 = 2x45 + 7x15 + 25x15 = 570

4) GNP deflator=(3x45 + 8x15 +20x15): (2x45+7x15+25x15)= 555:570= 0.97. Consequently, the price level fell by 3%. Those. the economy went into deflation.

Consequently, the cost of living has increased by 40%.

Task 18.

Is it profitable to invest in a project that requires a one-time investment of 200 thousand den. and promises by the end of the first year an income of 100 thousand den..units, by the end of the second year - another 150 thousand den.un. and by the end of the third year - 50 thousand den. units, if the annual inflation rate is 15%.

Solution:

The discounting operation is used to estimate future cash income. If the inflation rate is projected at 15% then, relative to investments, the income at the end of the first period will be =

At the end of the second year they will be:

At the end of the third year:

For three years, income, taking into account inflation, will be: 87 + 113.4 + 33 = 233.4 thousand den. it is obvious that this project, even taking into account inflation, is effective.

Publication date: 2015-07-22; Read: 2405 | Page copyright infringement

Studopedia.org - Studopedia.Org - 2014-2018 year. (0.004 s) ...

(Consumer price index, CPI

The consumer price index is one of the most widely used price indices and plays an important role in the economy because is the base value serving as an impetus for the recalculation of wages, social benefits and other payments, which should occur regularly and automatically, for example, every quarter, annually or every six months, by organizations hiring employees in their staff.

In such a situation, with a high level of centralization, a redistribution of the rise in prices for consumer goods is sure to take place. For example, between such goods as Kalashnikov assault rifles and tarpaulin boots, the prices for which the country's government can artificially reduce.

Add to bookmarks

Add comments

Definition

Inflation – it is a steady increase in the general level of prices for goods and services in the economy. The reverse process - a decrease in the general price level - is called deflation.

Consumer price index as an indicator of inflation

The change in prices in the economy is given by various price dynamics indicators– producer price indices, gross domestic product deflator, consumer price index. When people talk about inflation, they usually mean the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change over time in the cost of a set of food, non-food goods and services consumed by an average household (i.e., the cost of a “consumer basket”). The choice of the CPI as the main indicator of inflation is related to its role as an important indicator of the dynamics of the cost of living of the population. In addition, the CPI has a number of characteristics that make it convenient for widespread use - the simplicity and clarity of the construction methodology, the monthly frequency of calculation, and the speed of publication.

Statistical monitoring of prices, necessary calculations and publication of CPI data in Russia is carried out by the Federal State Statistics Service.

Features of the Russian consumer basket

In Russia, as well as in emerging markets in general, a characteristic feature of the consumer basket is a rather high share of food products (36.5% in 2014). Their prices are highly volatile. To a large extent, fluctuations in inflation in the food market are determined by changes in supply volumes, first of all, the crop yield in our country and in the world, which is significantly dependent on weather conditions. Since the share of food products in the consumer basket is high, price fluctuations for them can have a significant impact on inflation in general.

In addition, prices for tobacco products, alcoholic products significantly depend on excise rates.

Consumer demand is satisfied by goods and services of both domestic and foreign production. There are no statistical data on the share of imports in the CPI, but an idea of it in terms of goods can be given by the share of imports in the structure of retail trade resources (in recent years, about 44%). A significant share of merchandise imports in the consumer basket determines the significance of the impact of changes in the ruble exchange rate on inflation.

Inflation factors

Prices may rise faster or slower. In the first case, they speak of an increase in inflation, in the second, of its decrease.

There are various reasons for the change in inflation. Let's consider them on the example of accelerating price growth. If the level of demand for goods and services exceeds the supply capacity to satisfy it, they speak of a pro-inflationary effect. demand side factors. In some cases, the outpacing growth in demand may be affected by loans that are too affordable and the accelerated growth of nominal incomes of economic entities. These sources of excess demand are often referred to as "monetary factors of inflation"- pressure on prices due to the creation of an excess amount of money.

Inflation can be caused by growth costs for the production and sale of a unit of output - due to the rise in the cost of raw materials, materials, components, an increase in the costs of enterprises for wages, taxes, interest payments and other costs. Rising costs may also lead to lower production volumes and, further, to the formation of additional pro-inflationary pressure due to insufficient supply.

Economic theory highlights as a special factor inflation expectations– assumptions about the level of future inflation, formed by the subjects of the economy. The expected level of inflation is taken into account by producers when making decisions regarding the setting of prices for their own products, wage rates, production volumes and investments. Households' inflationary expectations influence their decisions about how much of their funds to save and how much to consume. The decisions of economic actors affect the supply and demand for goods and services and, ultimately, inflation.

Negative effects of high inflation

Benefits of Price Stability

Consumer price index

Consumer price index, CPI (Consumer price index, CPI) is a price index that is calculated for a certain group of goods and services that determine the composition of the consumer basket of one inhabitant of the country and is calculated for a certain period of time.

For example, in the United States, the consumer price index is calculated by taking as a basis 265 goods and services taken in 85 cities of the country. In Russia, when calculating, a consumer basket is taken, the composition of which is approved federal law No. 44-FZ "On the consumer basket as a whole for Russian Federation". It includes both food, non-food products, and various kinds of services.

Thus, the consumer price index is the ratio of the entire consumer basket of the base year, which is estimated at the prices of the current year, to the consumer basket for the base year, which is estimated at the prices of the base year.

If we assume that the consumer basket includes only three types of goods, then an example of calculating the indicator will look like this, as shown in the table below.

The consumer price index is one of the most widely used price indices and plays an important role in the economy because

is the base value serving as an impetus for the recalculation of wages, social benefits and other payments, which should occur regularly and automatically, for example, every quarter, annually or every six months, by organizations hiring employees in their staff.

The important role of the consumer price index implies the need to create in the economy a unified methodology for calculating this indicator, which in due time would reflect the degree of change in the price level. For example, only a small and limited number of goods that fall under the minimum level of consumption will be taken into account when calculating the CPI. Based on this, the price change index will be much lower and the growth in wages will not compensate for the growth in inflation, which may affect the reduction in incentives to work. A similar situation can happen if, for example, the consumer basket includes such goods that were produced within the country. In such a situation, with a high level of centralization, a redistribution of the rise in prices for consumer goods is sure to take place. For example, between such goods as Kalashnikov assault rifles and tarpaulin boots, the prices for which the country's government can artificially reduce.

The calculation method itself also plays an important role. For example, consider the following method for calculating the consumer price index, which is mathematically correct and even recommended for calculating the CPI, but gives a slightly different result than in the case shown above. The formula looks like this:

Having determined the share of each group of goods that are part of the usual consumer basket and substituting prices into the formula, we get:

When calculating indices, statistical accuracy entails the creation of a single base, and therefore the consumer price index in a country is based on a single base, which is the base year's production volume or single shares of goods in the consumer basket. As a result, the CPI does not reflect the impact of a change in price on a change in the share of consumption of any good. In addition, the price index cannot estimate what percentage of the price increase is the qualitative improvement of the product as such. For example, a 1960 model car and a 1990 car differ significantly in their quality characteristics.

The consumer price index is different from such an indicator as GDP deflator. The GDP deflator estimates the value of total output at current year prices. In addition, the GDP deflator takes into account the goods and services that make up the country's GDP, while the CPI only takes into account the goods and services included in the consumer basket.

Economics: English-Russian dictionary-reference book. - E.J. Dolan, B.I. Domnenko. — M.: Lazur, 1994.

Add to bookmarks

Add comments

Consumer price index - define and calculate it!

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

— Consumer Price Index (CPI)
— Calculation of the Consumer Price Index
— Impact of consumer price indices on currency quotes
— General or consumer inflation
— The impact of the CPI index on forex trading
— Weaknesses and strengths of the consumer price index
- Conclusion

CPI (CPI)- consumer price index, reflects changes in the price level for a group of goods and services for the reporting period (month, 3 months, year). It reflects the change in the cost of living in the country, being an early indicator of consumer inflation, fixing changes in the purchasing power of the national currency.

The rise in the consumer price index reflects the fact that a typical basket of goods and services has risen in price relative to the base period. Accelerating CPI growth indicates an increase in consumer inflation, which, in an economic growth environment, is often a signal for tightening monetary policy.

The consumer price index, as a rule, is published monthly and has a significant impact on exchange rates, as it allows you to more accurately determine the direction of the state's monetary policy, as well as the state of consumer demand.

At the same time, the Central Bank often focuses not only on the actual indicators of consumer inflation, but also on inflation expectations. If consumer price growth is expected to pick up in the future, workers may start demanding more nominal income to increase their purchasing power. This, in turn, may force companies to raise their selling prices, which will ultimately lead to higher consumer prices.

In addition, if companies expect higher rates of consumer inflation in the future, they will tend to raise their prices in the belief that consumer demand will not suffer from this.

Rising inflation makes current consumption more attractive than saving.

On the one hand, the monetary policy of the Central Bank should prevent high rates of consumer inflation, as this is a sure sign of an overheated economy.

On the other hand, too low consumer price indexes can deprive households of the incentive to buy “now”, and companies to invest in production (Why invest in something that you can only sell later at a loss for yourself).

In light of this, deflation (a drop in prices from last year's level) is a great danger to the economy, so Central Banks are doing their best to avoid this by lowering interest rates or even starting the process of quantitative easing.

When making a decision, the monetary committee often relies not on the general index, but on the so-called core consumer price index (Core CPI). When calculating this indicator, it usually does not include changes in food and energy prices, which are subject to sharp jumps both due to changes in weather and seasonal factors, and due to the cyclical development of the economy.

On the one hand, the core consumer inflation index is a more stable indicator, however, on the other hand, the excluded components make up about a quarter of the total volume and goods included in the CPI calculation, and have a significant impact on other groups of goods.

Calculation of the Consumer Price Index

This indicator is calculated on the basis of the consumer basket, which includes various goods or services in a particular country. The calculation process compares the value of this basket at the beginning of the period and at the end. As a result, you can get a picture of whether prices have risen or fallen over a given period.

Rising prices are defined as inflation. As for its fall, it is called deflation (the reverse process of inflation).

Consumer price index (CPI) is a price index calculated for a certain group of goods and services that determine the composition of the consumer basket of one resident of the country and is calculated for a certain period of time.

For example, in the United States, the consumer price index is calculated by taking as a basis 265 goods and services taken in 85 cities of the country. In Russia, when calculating, a consumer basket is taken, the composition of which is approved by Federal Law No. 44-FZ “On the consumer basket as a whole in the Russian Federation”. It includes both food, non-food products, and various kinds of services.

The calculation method itself also plays an important role.

In addition, the price index cannot estimate what percentage of the price increase is the qualitative improvement of the product as such.

So, the Consumer Price Index is an indicator that helps measure the average cost of goods and services over a certain period of time. The CPI is used to calculate the rate of inflation. In fact, it can be called the "main" inflation in a particular state.

The impact of consumer price indices on currency quotes

The influence of the CPI on the Forex market is difficult to overestimate. In fact, it is huge. This macroeconomic indicator can be attributed to the main ones. At the time of publication, quite significant price fluctuations may begin on the market. In addition, the CPI is one of the main indicators for fundamental analysis, that is, for working with medium-term and long-term trends.

If we consider the situation, ceteris paribus, then there is an inverse relationship between the value of the currency and inflation. An increase in prices leads to a depreciation of the currency and vice versa, a fall in prices leads to an increase in the value of the currency. Here, in general, everything is logical. With the rise in prices for the purchase of certain goods and services, you will have to spend more money. If prices fall, then less money is spent.

However, for Forex traders, another important factor to consider is the intervention of central banks. When inflation is near its target levels, the central bank will not intervene unless the CPI is expected to fluctuate wildly.

But if inflation deviates from targets or changes in a direction unfavorable for the country's economy, the central bank will intervene in the situation. The main instruments in this case are considered to be interest rates and the currently fashionable asset purchase program.

How can a central bank curb inflation? First of all, through the growth of interest rates. And here begins the first divergence from the main theory about the inverse relationship between the value of the currency and inflation.

How will the market react to rising interest rates? Of course, the growth of the currency. It will be in demand, since the growth of rates is, among other things, a more profitable investment in deposits.

In many situations, the market begins to win back the growth of rates in advance (with an increase in inflation), and thus the process acquires a direct rather than an inverse relationship.

General or consumer inflation

General or consumer inflation, or, in other words, the consumer price index CPI, is the weighted average change in the price of goods and services, excluding electricity prices. These prices are excluded due to their seasonal dependence on consumption and prices.

Items whose value is included in the CPI calculation are weighted according to their economic importance. In total, this list includes more than two hundred categories of services and goods. All categories of these products are divided into 8 main groups:

Food and drinks.
housing expenses.
Clothing.
Fare.
Medical support.
Rest, recovery.
Education.
Communications.

The impact of the CPI index on forex trading

Changes in consumer prices are perhaps the most accurate measure of inflationary trends in an economy. Moreover, an upward trend in the CPI indicates that the country's economy is experiencing inflation or a decrease in the purchasing power of the currency.

Since the function of the government reserve is to keep inflation within limits, the central bank may decide to raise interest rates in order to control the currency. And, as a result, the value of the national currency is growing with a moderate growth of the fundamental index CPI. Similarly, a currency can weaken in a hyperinflationary environment in which inflation skyrockets and spirals out of control.

The decline in interest rates in a deflationary economic environment is confirmed by the declining CPI. Therefore, a falling CPI will generally harm the exchange rate of the currency.

Weaknesses and strengths of the consumer price index

Like all indices and indicators that are used in the analysis of Forex market data, the CPI fundamental consumer price index has its strengths and weaknesses.

The strengths of this index include:

— the ability to anticipate future fluctuations in foreign exchange rates;
— CPI is subject to serious observation and analysis in media sources;
- serves as a reliable base for the analysis of regional data, as well as industry data.

Weaknesses of the CPI include:

— this index is volatile from month to month;
- fixed CPI has certain limitations that can distort the results;
- exclusion of data on electricity prices is good only in the long run, but still they must be taken into account when calculating inflation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has a big impact on forex trading. Being an important economic indicator, the CPI affects not only Forex, but also interest rates and prices in the stock and bond markets. The consumer price index is also used to adjust cash flow mechanisms such as pensions, health insurance and income.

As a result, many traders and investors are realizing that CPI influences their strategies in one way or another. The consumer price index compares the value of a household's consumer basket with the same consumer basket in the previous period.

The consumer price index is an important indicator of inflation in any economy. Traders should track the CPI. As soon as investors begin to feel the approach of inflation, they are obliged to change their investment strategies and look for alternative ways to invest their capital. An investor earning around 20% dividends on an investment may lose the investment when the currency's inflationary adjustment is 20% or more.

Governments also closely monitor the CPI. There are several steps that the Central Bank or the Federal Reserve can take to keep the consumer price index at an acceptable level. The CPI is also used to adjust payments to beneficiaries, military pensioners and civil servants. The CPI is also a benchmark when adjusting the structure of the income tax to prevent tax increases that threaten inflation. All these actions have a direct impact on the foreign exchange market.

The CPI can also be affected by price increases in a particular currency. For example, rising oil prices can affect transportation, food, goods and services, and retail sales and, as a result, stretch the budgets of the middle class. In this case, a significant increase in the price of one product can provoke a domino effect, which will affect the strategies of investors and traders of the entire Forex market.

Conclusion

Traders who rely on fundamental analysis in their trading strategy need to know the Consumer Price Index. Since it is one of the most important indicators for the volatility of the Forex market.

Typically, the CPI is published monthly and has a huge impact on exchange rates. The reason for this influence is that it allows you to determine the exact direction of the state monetary policy, as well as the state of consumer demand.

The material was prepared by Dilyara specifically for the site

Consumer price index, CPI (Consumer price index, CPI) is a price index that is calculated for a certain group of goods and services that determine the composition of the consumer basket of one resident of the country and is calculated for a certain period of time.

For example, in the United States, the consumer price index is calculated by taking as a basis 265 goods and services taken in 85 cities of the country. In Russia, when calculating, a consumer basket is taken, the composition of which is approved by Federal Law No. 44-FZ “On the consumer basket as a whole in the Russian Federation”. It includes both food, non-food products, and various kinds of services.

If we assume that the consumer basket includes only three types of goods, then an example of calculating the indicator will look like this, as shown in the table below.

The consumer price index is one of the most widely used price indices and plays an important role in the economy because is the base value serving as an impetus for the recalculation of wages, social benefits and other payments that should occur regularly and automatically, for example, every quarter, annually or every six months, by organizations hiring employees in their staff.

The important role of the consumer price index implies the need to create in the economy a unified methodology for calculating this indicator, which in due time would reflect the degree of change in the price level. For example, only a small and limited number of goods that fall under the minimum level of consumption will be taken into account when calculating the CPI. Based on this, the price change index will be much smaller and wage growth will not compensate for inflation, which may affect the reduction in incentives to work. A similar situation can happen if, for example, the consumer basket includes such goods that were produced within the country. In such a situation, with a high level of centralization, a redistribution of the rise in prices for consumer goods is sure to take place. For example, between such goods as Kalashnikov assault rifles and tarpaulin boots, the prices for which the country's government can artificially reduce.

Having determined the share of each group of goods that are part of the usual consumer basket and substituting prices into the formula, we get:

Aggregate price indices

For real accounting of inflationary processes occurring in the economy, aggregate price indices are used, calculated on the basis of a constant consumption structure - a certain set of goods and services (called "market basket") for a given time period.

Aggregate price index is an indicator that characterizes the dynamics of price changes for a certain period in a certain territory compared to the base year, necessary to compare the prices of a set of heterogeneous goods and services.

The accepted practice is to multiply the ratio of the value of the given year to the base year by 100 percent or points.

Main the aggregate price indices are the consumer price index and the GDP deflator.

CPI- an index in which the market basket is represented by a specific, legally established set of goods and services, called consumer basket(private type of market basket). The composition of the consumer basket is fixed at the level of the base year ( Q i 0), so traditionally this index is calculated using the formula Laspeyres.

The Laspeyres formula for calculating the CPI is:

where P i 1 and P i 0– price i-th product in the current year and the base year, respectively,

Q i 0– volume of consumption i-th product in the base year,

n- the number of different product groups.

Thus, the CPI characterizes how many times consumer spending would change in the current period compared to the base period if, with price changes, the volume and structure of consumption would remain unchanged. Therefore, the CPI serves as an indicator of inflation, and information about it is used when deciding on the indexation of the population's monetary income.

CPI Calculation Procedure

The CPI is calculated in several steps. First, individual price indices of goods (services) in the city are determined as partial divisions of average prices:

In turn, the average prices of the reporting and base periods R 1 and R 0 for each registered product are calculated according to the formula of a simple arithmetic average, i.e. as the sum of registered prices in different points divided by the number of registered prices.

where n - number of registered prices.

On the basis of individual price indices for the territories participating in the observation, aggregate price indices of individual goods, product groups and services for the whole region, the Russian Federation are determined.

As territorial weight the proportion of the population at the beginning of the current year of the surveyed territory in the total population of the Russian Federation is used. It should be noted that it would be advisable to take the share of sales of the relevant goods in the total sales volume as territorial weights, but since such data are not available at the level of the district, city, and in order to simplify calculations, the proportion of the population of each selected region can be taken as territorial weights. .

Based on aggregate indices for goods and services in general (or groups of goods and services) and the share of expenditures for their acquisition in the consumer spending of the population, composite indices prices in general for groups of consumer goods and services, as well as CPI for the region, economic region, the Russian Federation as a whole.

As a formula for calculating the CPI, the Laspeyres formula is used:

where I- price index of the /-th period compared with the base period;

p - price i-th product or service, respectively, in the base and i-th period.

As weights in the calculation of the CPI, consumer expenditures of the population obtained as a result of household surveys are used. To clarify the specific weight of individual items of the consumer set, information on the structure of retail turnover is also used, expert opinions and other sources.

In a stable economy, the change in the structure of consumer spending is relatively slow. Under these conditions, the weights used to calculate the CPI change on average once every 4-5 years. Then you can use the following calculation formula:

where d- weights fixed at some/th level.

At the same time, prices of the current period are compared with the prices of any other period, and not only with the prices of the year in which the consumer expenditure survey was conducted.

Currently, due to the fact that in Russia, in an unstable economy, the structure of consumer spending changes significantly from year to year, the method of adjusting the average annual weights is used, which makes it possible to bring the weights of the basic consumer basket as close as possible to the conditions of the current period.

The dynamics of price indices in Russia is presented in Table. 3.


All goods and services
foodstuffs
non-grocery goods
paid services population

* Russia in numbers: Krat. stat. Sat / Goskomstat of Russia. - M., 1999. S. 354-355.

The CPI calculated using the Laspeyres formula shows how consumer spending would change in the current period compared to prices in the base period if the level and structure of consumption remained unchanged. However, the structure of consumer spending is changing, so it is commonly believed that the Laspeyres index overestimates inflation, while the Paasche index underestimates it.

According to R. Torvey, a well-known English specialist in the field of labor statistics, there is no unequivocal answer to the question of what “ideally” the CPI* should measure. Differences between "ideal" indices cannot be ignored, just as differences between the index formulas used, such as the Paasche and Laspeyres indices. Therefore, there may be a difference between what the CPI measures and what needs to be measured. In addition, the problems associated with changing the quality of goods remain largely unresolved. World practice has developed a good guideline in determining the number of group indices, according to which their number of 200 or 300 is quite enough.

The most difficult thing in calculating the CPI in Russian statistical practice is the collection of primary information on prices. Still the main problem in price recording is that each month there is a lack of some kind of product or data on the underlying trade and there are difficulties in providing comparable price information.

The composite index of consumer prices for goods and paid services to the population measures the level of inflation. To index wages, the price index for a set of goods and services is used, excluding non-essential goods.

In table. 4 shows a simplified scheme for calculating the CPI. The cost of payment for municipal housing in certain districts of the region for December 1992 and January-June 1993 was taken as initial information**

Table 4

CPI calculation scheme

		Tariff, rub, P l
Districts, regions	Share of population
	population, d k







Total for the region
Index to the previous month
by December 1992

** Issues of Statistics 1996 No. 3 C 53-60

In the line “Total for the region”, the arithmetic averages of the tariffs for the region, weighted by the share of the population are calculated. For example, in January 1993, the average tariff for municipal housing was

where p t - average price (tariff) for the region in the i-th month;

p kl- tariff kth district in i-m month, d k - proportion of the population k- ro area of the region.

From the analysis of the dynamics of average tariffs, it can be seen that over the half year, tariffs increased by 5.426 times, mainly their growth occurred in June, when tariffs increased by 3.153 times compared to May.

The resulting indices for the analyzed type of service can be used to build an aggregate CPI for all product groups. However, this calculation method is used to determine the price (tariff) index for homogeneous goods (services) and is not used for product groups that include goods with different quality characteristics ( for example, certain types of clothing, footwear, fabrics) An algorithm has been adopted for calculating the price index for such items in the region as a whole (Table 5).

Composite indices for the region (to the previous month) are calculated as arithmetic averages of individual indices weighted by an aggregate indicator, defined as the product of the share of the population and the tariff level of each region (p 0 k d k ).

Table 5 Individual tariff indices for individual regions

districts of the region, k		Indices to the previous period,
districts of the region, k







Total for the region to the previous month

Composite basic indices (as of December 1992) are calculated using the formula:

To calculate them, we determine the basic individual indices for the districts of the region (Table 6).

Summary chain indices are shown in the bottom row of Table. 5. Their calculation is given for April, since for January, February and March, the composite indices, as well as individual ones, are equal to I:

Table 6 Basic individual indices by districts of the region

districts of the region, k








Total tariff index as of December 1992

The basic indices for the districts of the region will be obtained on the basis of the chain indices from Table. 5 using the relation between them:

June/December = January/December * February/January * March/February * April/March * May/April * June/May

Consolidated basic indexes for the region are given in the bottom row of Table. 6:

This method of calculating composite tariff indices makes it possible to take into account not only the proportion of the population consuming services at these tariffs, but also the level of basic prices (tariffs) in each district. The differentiation of tariffs by regions is significant: from 0.13 to 2.25 in December and from 0.13 to 7.0 in May, therefore the chain composite indices given in Table. 4 and 5 differ both in May and in June, i.e., in those months when tariffs were changed in almost all regions.

The composite indices for goods or commodity groups obtained in this way are further aggregated at the level of the republic, taking into account the structure of consumer spending. In table. Figure 7 summarizes the structure of consumer spending by major commodity groups.

Table 7 Structure of consumer spending by main commodity groups

(according to the Household Budget Survey data]

To calculate the index cost of living a normative approach to the formation of a consumer basket is needed: a set (list and quantity) of goods and services is compared, which is necessary to ensure a living wage, which is estimated at the prices of the reporting and base periods.

To calculate the subsistence minimum, a set of 25 basic foodstuffs is determined. Along with the monthly registration of prices for the full list of goods and services, weekly registration of prices and tariffs for goods and services included in the required social set of 37 items is carried out.

The cost of a set of 25 basic foodstuffs is calculated based on the annual consumption rates required for a man of working age, and is used to compare the level of food prices in different cities. The set includes: rye and wheat bread - 68.7 kg, rice - 3.7 kg, vermicelli - 5.2 kg, sugar - 20.7 kg, vegetable oil - 6.4 kg, butter - 2.5 kg , meat - 8.4 kg, chickens - 17.5 kg, boiled sausage - 0.45 kg, boiled-smoked sausage - 0.35 kg, milk - 123.1 l, sour cream - 1.6 kg, cheese - 2 .3 kg, eggs - 151.4 pcs., potatoes - 124.2 kg, fresh cabbage - 28.1 kg, onion - 28.4 kg, apples - 19.4 kg, cottage cheese - 9.9 kg, margarine - 3.9 kg.

The choice of this list is due to the fact that the listed goods are relatively constantly on sale throughout Russia, which makes it possible to reasonably analyze the dynamics of the cost of a set of products.

The cost of a set of basic foodstuffs is determined for Moscow and St. Petersburg, the capitals of the republics, regional and regional centers per month.

3. Consumer price index

To analyze the actual data on the development of inflation in Russia after price liberalization, it is necessary to dwell on one of the main indicators for assessing the level of inflation - the consumer price index.

In accordance with the Decree of the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics of June 20, 1995 No. 79 on the approval of the “Regulations on the procedure for monitoring changes in prices and tariffs for goods and services: determining the consumer price index”, a unified methodology and tools are adopted for monitoring the level and dynamics of consumer prices , and establishes the procedure for calculating the consumer price index (CPI). According to this resolution, the definition of the CPI is as follows:

“The CPI characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption. It measures the ratio of the value of an actual fixed set of goods and services in the current period to its value in the previous (base) period.”

The CPI is one of the most important indicators characterizing the level of inflation and is used to implement the state financial policy, analyze and forecast price processes in the economy, regulate the real exchange rate of the national currency, revise the minimum social guarantees in order to characterize changes in the total amount of consumer spending by the population in certain regions and the Russian Federation as a whole for goods, paid services in the current period compared to the previous (base) period under the influence of changes in prices for these goods and services.

Procedure and stages of CPI calculation:

Individual price indices for goods (services) in the city are determined as a quotient of average comparable prices.

On the basis of individual price indices for the cities participating in the observation, and territorial weights, aggregate price indices of individual goods, product groups and services as a whole for the region, economic region, and the Russian Federation are determined.

Based on aggregate indices for goods and services for the region as a whole, for the economic region, free price indices are determined in general for groups of food, non-food products and services, as well as CPI for the region, economic region, and the Russian Federation as a whole.

The calculation of the CPI is carried out in accordance with the Laspeyres formula:

Po Qo x PI/Po, where:

Qo - the number of goods (cases of receiving services) in the consumer set of the base period;

PI (o) - the price of a unit of goods (services) in the consumer set of the reporting (base) period.

The CPI is calculated on a weekly, monthly, quarterly basis, as well as on an accrual basis for the period from the beginning of the year.

Annual industrial wholesale price indices consistently outperform corresponding consumer price indices. Most likely, special impulses to raise prices come from the sphere of production. Let's consider this area in more detail, using table 3. It can be seen that the prices of industrially produced goods are lower than the prices of resources. In January-February, the excess of the former over the latter was 7 percentage points. consequently, from the depths of industry, from the lowest stages of processing, a special inflationary impulse emanates.

Tab.32

In the sectoral context, the fuel and energy complex stands out in this respect. This is cost-push inflation in the Russian economy.

The roots of cost-push inflation in a transitional economy lie in the recent past, and its mechanism is constantly fed by the modern type of economic development of the country, its economic policy. One should remember the system of planned pricing, as well as the closeness, relative isolation of the Russian economy from the world market.

Questions of Economics, 1995, No. 3, p.5

Nominal and real GDP. Price indices

All macroeconomic indicators are expressed in market prices. When they are measured in current prices (i.e. prices of a given period), their magnitudes are nominal value . If constant, or comparable, prices are used (i.e. prices of the base period), the indicators have real value (or "physical expression"). Therefore, there may be significant discrepancies between nominal and real indicators due to changes in the price level, therefore, an increase in indicators does not always indicate an increase in the physical volume of social production. Only the dynamics of the real indicator, as follows from its definition, makes it possible to assess the change in the physical volume of output over a certain period of time.

Obviously, the value of nominal GDP (and all other macro indicators) is influenced by two processes:

a) the dynamics of the real volume of production;

b) price level dynamics.

Real GDP is calculated by adjusting nominal GDP for a price index (the same applies to all other macroeconomic indicators).

Price index can be calculated as the ratio of the price of the current period to the price of the base period. It shows the relative change in the average price level for goods - goods and services of a certain set ( representative set, or "basket"):

(2.2)

where: P– aggregate price index;

p 1 and p 0 - price for a certain good, respectively, in the current and base periods;

q*- the volume of production of a certain good in the period (current or base).

Aggregate (or composite) price index can be used to determine the dynamics of the cost of the entire set of goods and services ( general index) and for certain groups of goods and services ( group index).

Depending on the content of the set of goods used in the calculation of the price index, there are three types of price indices : consumer price index, production price index, deflator.

When determining consumer price index(Eng. CPI - “consumer price index”), the “consumer basket” includes many of the most important goods consumed by a typical or average household (consumer goods). Consumer basket is a set of goods necessary to meet the needs of an average family, ensuring the maintenance of a minimum standard of living.

it Laspeyres index- price index with basic weights (a set of goods fixed in the base year):

(2.2)

Based on a similar wholesale production price index the dynamics of the cost of production of a group of goods or services is determined.

Index (2.2) does not take into account structural changes in the set of goods in the current period compared to the base one, which somewhat distorts the result. Thus, in the consumer basket of the base year, changes in the structure of consumption in the current period are not taken into account, for example, the replacement of more expensive goods with cheaper ones in the face of rising prices. The result is an overestimation of the actual price increase if the consumer price index is used as an estimate.

If we fix the set of benefits for the current year, we get Paasche index:

(2.3)

Unlike the Laspeyres index, the Paasche index somewhat underestimates the rise in the price level in the economy, since it also does not take into account the dynamics of the weight structure, fixing it already in the current period. If it is used to estimate price increases, then the impact on consumers of price increases for goods that were present in the base year set but not in the current year set will not be taken into account.

If we take the entire set of goods represented in GNP (GDP) as a representative set in the index (2.3), then we get deflator GNP (GDP), which acts as general price level in economics.

Deflator is the ratio of nominal GDP (GNP) to real GDP (GNP) in the current period.

In terms of its economic content, it reflects not only price changes, but also changes in the structure of the "basket" of goods, measuring the growth of not only consumer prices, but also all other prices.

The Fisher index partly eliminates the shortcomings of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices by averaging their values:

(2.4)

Converting nominal GDP (GNP) to real means deflation(the value of the price index is greater than 1 and nominal GDP is reduced to real) or inflation(that is, the value of the price index is less than 1, and nominal GDP increases to real).

Price indices are used to assess changes in the rate of inflation and changes in the cost of living. However, they make it difficult to compare the results of national production different countries, since the composition of their consumer baskets has significant differences.

In comparing the level of economic development of different countries, neither the nominal nor the real product of society can be used. As mentioned above, its value can be determined by different methods. Therefore, for a real comparison, it is necessary to calculate nominal GDP according to a single methodology and in one monetary unit per capita.

Abstract topics:

1. Balance National economy(BNH) and the system of national accounts: a comparative analysis

2. System of National Accounts of the UN and the EU: a comparative analysis

3. Dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and development trends

4. Problems of assessing the national welfare of the country

5. Price scale, consumer basket, cost of living index: correlation of values

Control tests:

1. The system of national accounts is information:

a) on the use of the results of national production;

b) about the main causal dependencies in the economy;

c) about the structure of the state economy;

d) on the production and distribution of the results of national production.

2. National account is:

a) balance building, reflecting the reproduction processes in the country;

b) main institutional unit countries; c) macroeconomic indicator;

3. Sector is:

a) economic entities registered in the given country;

b) independent entities that are legal entities;

c) the method of ordering information on economic transactions;

d) institutional units that are homogeneous in terms of their functions.

4. The market value of all final goods produced in the country during the year by all economic entities is:

a) gross domestic product; b) net national product;

c) gross national product; d) disposable income; e) national income.

5. The market value of all final goods produced during the year by economic entities-residents of a given country is:

a) net national product b) national income; c) disposable income;

d) gross domestic product; e) gross national product.

6. The market value of all final goods produced in the country during the year, minus the value of the consumed means of production and indirect taxes, is:

a) national income; b) net domestic product;

c) net national product; d) gross domestic product.

7. Which of the following is included in GNP:

a) proceeds from the sale of spare parts;

b) purchase of used equipment;

c) acquisition of new shares; d) the cost of goods in the store.

8. Value added is:

a) the gross output of the enterprise in market prices minus material costs;

b) all production costs plus profit;

c) the value of the total social product produced;

d) the market value of all final goods minus the cost of material inputs;

e) the market value of the output of the final product in the economy.

9. Gross investment in the country is taken into account when calculating:

a) GNP by production method; b) GNP by income;

c) personal income; d) GNP by expenditure.

10. The income of the owners of all factors of production in the economy is:

a) national income; b) personal income; c) disposable income;

d) net national product; e) net domestic product.

11. Depreciation and indirect taxes are taken into account when calculating:

a) GNP by income; b) GNP by expenditure; c) personal income;

d) GNP by production method; e) disposable income.

12. The excess of GDP over GNP indicates:

a) a negative foreign trade balance;

b) on the presence of foreign branches of the country's residents;

c) positive foreign trade balance;

d) the presence of foreign property in the country.

13. Net and gross investments in the economy are correlated with each other by the formula:

a) gross investment - net investment = depreciation;

b) net investment - gross investment = depreciation;

c) gross investment + net investment = depreciation;

d) gross investment + depreciation = net investment;

e) gross investment - depreciation = net investment.

14. Disposable income is:

a) the sum of wages, rent, profit and interest on capital;

b) personal income + individual taxes; c) national income - personal income;

d) personal income - individual taxes.

15. Transfer payments are:

a) payments to households that are not subject to material compensation on their part;

c) subsidies to firms to reduce the impact of indirect taxes on prices;

d) deductions for the consumption of capital in the economy.

16. Personal income is:

a) disposable income + personal taxes;

b) national income + transfers - indirect taxes;

c) national income + social payments + income taxes - transfers;

d) national income + transfers - social payments - taxes on profits - deductions from profits.

17. The indicator "net economic well-being" is:

a) net national product

b) the sum of all value added in the economy;

c) a generalizing indicator of the material well-being of society;

d) a more complete description of the real welfare of society.

18. The ratio of nominal GNP to real GNP is:

a) the general price index in the economy; b) consumer price index;

c) production price index; d) individual price index; e) deflator.

19. The general price index is:

a) the basic value of the "market basket" / the current value of the "market basket";

b) the current value of the "market basket" - the basic value of the "market basket";

c) price level in the current period / price level in the base period;

d) the current value of the "market basket" / the basic value of the "market basket".

20. If the volume of nominal GNP and the price level have decreased, then:

a) real GNP has not changed;

b) real GNP increased to a lesser extent than prices;

c) real GNP declined;

d) it is impossible to unambiguously determine the dynamics of real GNP.

Topic 3. Macroeconomic instability

4. Cyclicity as a form of economic development. Essence and types of cycles, causes and indicators of cyclic fluctuations

5. Employment and unemployment. The level and types of unemployment. Full employment and Okun's law

6. Inflation and its consequences. Types of inflation. Stagflation

Methodology for calculating consumer price indices.

"Index" in translation from Latin - pointer or indicator. In statistics, an index is an indicator of the relative change in a given level of the phenomenon under study in comparison with its other level, taken as the basis for comparison.

The index of consumer prices and tariffs for goods and paid services to the population (CPI) characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices and tariffs for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption. Measures the ratio of the value of a fixed set of goods and services in the prices of the current period to its value in the prices of the previous period.

Monitoring of changes in consumer prices is entrusted to the bodies of state statistics. Rosstat performs monthly calculation of the system of consumer price indices:

1) All goods and paid services to the population;

2) All products without alcoholic beverages;

3) Food products without alcoholic beverages;

4) Food products (including alcoholic beverages);

5) Non-food products;

6) Paid services;

7) All non-essential goods and services;

8) All goods of non-mandatory use;

9) Non-mandatory food products;

10) Non-food items of optional use;

11) Paid services of optional use;

12) All goods and paid services (excluding non-mandatory goods and services);

13) Food products (excluding non-essential goods);

14) Non-food products (excluding non-essential goods);

15) Paid services (excluding non-mandatory services);

16) All goods and paid services (excluding vegetables, potatoes and fruits);

17) Food products (without vegetables, potatoes and fruits).

In addition, the consumer price index is calculated for goods and paid services to the population that are not included in the list of goods and services used in calculating core inflation.

The consumer price index is calculated as the result of dividing the sum of the products of the prices of the current year by the output of the base year by the sum of the product of the price level and the output of the base year:

(10)

The result is expressed as a percentage (multiplied by 100%).

The following properties of the consumer price index can be distinguished:

1) Based on a fixed price level for a set of goods and services in the consumer basket;

2) The main tool for calculating inflation in the US;

3) A common measure of change in the cost of living;

4) Is the Laspeyres index, since the consumer basket of the base year is used to calculate the CPI.

The purpose of calculating the CPI is to identify the most stable price dynamics that is not affected by supply and demand shocks, the seasonal factor, as well as the administrative impact of federal and regional authorities on pricing processes.

Because the consumer price index is calculated for goods and services from the consumer basket, let's move on to a more detailed study of it.