Why all the talk about the possible transfer of the Kuriles does not make sense yet.

The Japanese seem to have already decided everything. Sami. They have already handed over the Kuril Islands to themselves, and from the visit of the Russian president to Japan they are only waiting for a formal announcement about this. At least, the psychological picture in today's Japan is exactly this, many observers say. Then they ask themselves: but is Vladimir Putan ready to make such an announcement? And what will be the disappointment of the Japanese when the Russian president does not say anything about the transfer of the islands?
Or will he say? Maybe the Japanese know something that we Russians don't know?

What can the Japanese demand?

The main leitmotif in the Japanese press and Japanese discussions about the Kuriles is the readiness to exchange investments for the islands. They call this the "zero option": they say that the islands are ours anyway, but the bitterness of the loss of territories must be sweetened for the Russians. Their economic affairs are bad, so the multibillion-dollar Japanese investments will come in handy for the Russians. And the cherry on this cake will be the signing of a peace treaty, which, they say, will end the state of war between Japan and Russia.
And, in fact, what legal grounds do the Japanese have to dispute the ownership of the islands? What do they have besides a constant stubborn pressure?
“The Japanese made a claim to the islands immediately after the conclusion of the San Francisco Treaty between the allies and Japan, but there is no need to talk about any legal grounds,” said German Gigolaev, scientific secretary of the Institute of World History (IVI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in a conversation with Tsargrad. since the USSR did not sign this peace treaty with Japan then, in 1951, they made claims on this basis. Well, ears, probably, as always, stick out from the US State Department - they asked the Japanese to put forward claims, and they put forward."
That's all the reason: give it back, because we want it, and the owner ordered ...

True, there were voices that Tokyo might consider signing a peace treaty without transferring four (more precisely, three in bulk) islands from the Kuril chain. There were also voices that the Japanese government was ready to be satisfied with two of them. The authoritative Japanese newspaper "Kyodo" published a version of this, citing a source in the Cabinet of Ministers.
However, then these versions were refuted, and the picture remained the same: Japan should get everything! By the way, in the variant of a compromise with two islands, the strategy is aimed at all four. It's purely a matter of tactics. In the same article in "Kyodo" it is directly stated: the transfer of the two islands will only be the "first phase" of the settlement territorial issue. Similarly, the option of joint Russian-Japanese administration of the southern part of the Kuriles is no longer valid: the government resolutely refuted the corresponding report of the Nikkei newspaper back in October.
Thus, the position of Tokyo remains unchanged, and any compromise options turn out to be useless and meaningless: the winner, as they say, takes everything.
And the winner, of course, in any exchange of the islands for any financial "buns" will be - and will be announced - the Japanese. For money is nothing more than money, and territory is never less than territory. Let us recall what place Alaska occupies in the Russian national consciousness with the history of its sale. And it’s clear, it’s clear that in the middle of the 19th century it was unprofitable, inconvenient, practically uninhabited by Russian land, which the British or Americans would have taken away one way or another simply by the fact of its gradual settlement. And what kind of borders could have stopped them if gold had been discovered there earlier, when Alaska was still under Russian jurisdiction!
So it seems to be correct and inevitable - at least they received the money, and not just lost the land - Alaska should have been sold. But does anyone thank Tsar Alexander II for this today?

Kurile Islands. On the island of Kunashir. Fishing. Photo: Vyacheslav Kiselev/TASS

What can the Japanese give?

The only thing that can justify the transfer of the territory of the country to another state in the minds of the people is, perhaps, only an exchange for other territories. As, for example, they did this with the Chinese, correcting the status of individual islands on the Amur. Yes, they gave away some land, but they also received it, and even a little more. But what lands can the Japanese give us in exchange? Is it the island of Okinawa with American military bases? It is unlikely - there is hardly one among Japanese politicians who is capable of arranging such a "movement" ...
So, Japan has no land for us. Is there money?
And it depends what. Just recently, 10 billion dollars were received for a 19.5% stake in Rosneft. In total, the corporation promised "an overall effect, taking into account the capitalized synergies between PJSC NK Rosneft and PJSC ANK Bashneft, in the amount of more than 1.1 trillion rubles ($ 17.5 billion), cash receipts to the budget in the fourth quarter 2016 will amount to 1,040 billion rubles ($16.3 billion)."
Igor Sechin called this deal the largest in the history of the country. But these are just shares of just one state corporation, of which there are far more than one in Russia. Yes, as noted by a number of observers, sold at a fierce discount relative to the true value of the company.
Attention, the question is: how much money would Japan be willing to pay for our islands? Even if it's a tenfold higher amount - with $1.248 trillion in international reserves it can find it relatively painlessly - is it worth the candle? What economic effect will Japan get from the southern Kuril chain? It is clear that there will certainly be some effect - at least from the exploitation of marine resources in the adjacent water area. But the problem is that money is given - if given - by completely different people, far from the fishing industry.

Until the first shout of the owner ...

However, it's not about money - even if they really gave us money. What can be purchased with them? The most valuable thing in today's world for Russia is technology and machine tools. Will the Japanese give them to us? You can be sure - no. Serious technologies are a closed subject for us for reasons of secrecy. A similar problem is with machine tools: yes, we need them after the total destruction of industry in the 90s, much more important is the technology for their production. At one time, the USSR had already made a mistake when, after the war, it brought German machine tools to its territory as requisition. Rather, it was a forced measure - there were actually no good machine tools in the USSR before the war, and even more so after. But only in this way the industry turned out to be tied to obsolete models, but Germany, forcedly "undressed" in this respect, forcedly, but extremely effectively, modernized its machine park.
But even if we assume that the Japanese somehow get around other people's restrictions in this matter - and these are primarily American restrictions dictated, by the way, by interests and national security - how long will they be able to portray "nobility"? Until the very first independent movement of Russia, which Washington would not like. For example, the final capture of Aleppo. The coalition of Western countries has already threatened us with new sanctions for this and kept the old ones. Will the Japanese be able to disobey their main allies? Never!
Thus, everything turns out simply: even if Russia gives up the islands in exchange for money or technology, very soon it will not have either. And islands, of course.

What is Russia losing?

From a purely material point of view, the Kudryavy rhenium volcano alone on Iturup Island, which annually ejects $70 million worth of this valuable metal for defense needs, makes the loss of the islands a very mismanagement act. In Alaska, at least there was an excuse - the then Russian authorities did not know about either gold or oil in this distant land. According to the Kuriles, there is no such justification.
What happens if you give up the islands?

“Nothing good will happen,” the historian Gigolaev answers. “The zone of international waters in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, which are not subject to our national jurisdiction, will immediately increase. Plus, several straits are blocked for our warships to exit through them from the Sea of ​​​​Okhotsk to the open ocean.”
Of course, the extraction of fish and seafood in the surrounding water area gives rather big incomes. At the same time, there is also the right to limit this production in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk for the same Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, because the possession of four islands makes this sea inland for Russia.
But these are still pleasant, but trifles against the background of what the loss of the islands in the geostrategic sense can turn into. As pointed out by German Gigolaev.
The thing is that since the Second World War, Japan has not been a sovereign power in the full sense of the word. It is under US military and political control. And if tomorrow the Japanese get at least one of the disputed islands, the day after tomorrow an American military base may appear on it. For example, with the missile defense system, which, as Tsargrad has already written more than once from the words of informed military experts, can be quickly and painlessly converted into an attack complex - just a canopy of Tomahawk cruise missiles. And no one can stop the Americans, and Tokyo in particular cannot.
By the way, they are not particularly eager to ban. Moreover, at the level of the prime minister, the government, and the Foreign Ministry, they have already officially denied any even attempts to make an exception from the security treaty with the United States in relation to the South Kuril Islands, if Russia agrees to give them up. According to Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, the security treaty with the United States "applies and will continue to apply to all territories and water areas that are under the administrative control of Japan."
Accordingly, if desired, access to the Pacific Ocean is blocked for the Russian military fleet, because there are straits that do not freeze in winter, which are now controlled by the Russian military, but will become American. So, as soon as the threatened period comes - and who guarantees that this will never happen? - Immediately the Pacific Fleet can be written off the balance sheet. Indeed, with the same success, a solid naval group led by an aircraft carrier could be based somewhere on Iturup.

Let's agree: the Japanese (or, more likely, their owners, the Americans) came up with a beautiful option. Insignificant for the area of ​​Russia, patches of land immediately deprive Russia of rhenium necessary in military production (in engine building, for example), and valuable resources of sea areas, and access to the ocean in a threatened period.
And this is at total absence reasonable argument for their rights to these islands! And if, under these conditions, Moscow decides to transfer the islands, then something more terrible will happen than the loss of fish, rhenium, and even access to the ocean.
Because it will become clear to everyone: pieces can be pulled out of Russia even without any reasonable justification. That is, pieces can be pulled out of Russia! From Russia! Can! She allowed...

The dispute between Russia and Japan over the ownership of the South Kuriles has been going on for several decades. Due to the unresolved issue, a peace treaty has not yet been signed between the two countries. Why are the negotiations so difficult and is there a chance to find an acceptable solution that would suit both parties, the website found out.

Political maneuver

“We have been negotiating for seventy years. Shinzo said, "Let's change our minds." Let's. So that's the idea that came to my mind: let's conclude a peace treaty - not now, but before the end of the year - without any preconditions.

This remark by Vladimir Putin at the Vladivostok Economic Forum caused a stir in the media. Japan's response, however, was predictable: Tokyo was not ready to make peace without resolving the territorial issue due to a host of circumstances. Any politician who fixes in an international treaty even a hint of renunciation of claims to the so-called northern territories runs the risk of losing the election and ending his political career.

Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the plenary session "The Far East: Expanding the Boundaries of Opportunities" of the 4th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2018). From left to right - TV presenter, Deputy Director of the State Television Channel Rossiya, President of the Bering-Bellingshausen Institute for the Study of the Americas Sergei Brilev, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Chairman of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping, from right to left - Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea Lee Nak Yong and Mongolian President Khaltmaagiin Battulga

For decades, Japanese journalists, politicians and scientists have been explaining to the nation that the issue of the return of the South Kuriles for the Land of the Rising Sun is fundamental, and in the end they explained it. Now, with any political maneuver on the Russian front, the Japanese elites must take into account the notorious territorial problem.

Why Japan wants to get the four southern islands of the Kuril chain is understandable. But why does Russia not want to give them away?

From merchants to military bases

On the existence of the Kuril Islands Big world did not suspect until about the middle of the XVII century. The Ainu people who lived on them once inhabited all the Japanese islands, but under the pressure of the invaders who arrived from the mainland - the ancestors of the future Japanese - were gradually destroyed or driven north - to Hokkaido, the Kuriles and Sakhalin.

In 1635-1637, a Japanese expedition explored the southernmost islands of the Kuril chain, in 1643 the Dutch explorer Martin de Vries explored Iturup and Urup and declared the latter the property of the Dutch East India Company. Five years later, the northern islands were discovered by Russian merchants. In the 18th century, the Russian government took up the exploration of the Kuriles in earnest.

Russian expeditions reached the very south, mapped Shikotan and Habomai, and soon Catherine II issued a decree that all the Kuriles up to Japan itself were Russian territory. The European powers took note of this. The opinion of the Japanese at that time did not bother anyone except themselves.

Three islands - the so-called Southern group: Urup, Iturup and Kunashir - as well as the Lesser Kuril Ridge - Shikotan and numerous uninhabited islands next to it, which the Japanese call Habomai - ended up in a gray zone. The Russians did not build fortifications or station garrisons there, and the Japanese were mainly occupied with the colonization of Hokkaido. Only on February 7, 1855, the first border treaty, the Shimoda Treaty, was signed between Russia and Japan.

According to its terms, the border between Japanese and Russian possessions passed along the Friza Strait - ironically named after the very Dutch navigator who tried to declare the islands Dutch. Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai went to Japan, Urup and the islands further north to Russia. In 1875, the entire ridge to Kamchatka itself was transferred to the Japanese in exchange for the southern part of Sakhalin; 30 years later, Japan regained it as a result of the Russo-Japanese War, which Russia lost.

During World War II, Japan was part of the Axis, but hostilities between Soviet Union and the Empire of Japan were not fought for most of the conflict, since the parties signed a non-aggression pact in 1941. However, on April 6, 1945, the USSR, fulfilling its allied obligations, warned Japan about the denunciation of the pact, and in August declared war on it. Soviet troops occupied all the Kuril Islands, on whose territory the Yuzhno-Sakhalin region was created.

But in the end, things did not come to a peace treaty between Japan and the USSR. The Cold War began, relations between the former allies heated up. Japan, occupied by American troops, automatically ended up on the side of the Western bloc in the new conflict. Under the terms of the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951, which the Union refused to sign for a number of reasons, Japan confirmed the return of all the Kuriles to the USSR - except for Iturup, Shikotan, Kunashir and Khabomai.

Five years later, there seemed to be the prospect of a lasting peace: the USSR and Japan adopted the Moscow Declaration, which ended the state of war. The Soviet leadership then expressed its readiness to give Japan Shikotan and Habomai, on the condition that it withdraw its claims to Iturup and Kunashir.

But in the end, everything fell apart. The United States threatened Japan that if they signed an agreement with the Soviet Union, they would not return the Ryukyu archipelago to it. In 1960, Tokyo and Washington entered into an agreement on mutual cooperation and security guarantees, which contained the provision that the United States had the right to station troops of any size in Japan and establish military bases - and after that Moscow categorically abandoned the idea of ​​​​a peace treaty.

If earlier the USSR had the illusion that by concession to Japan it was possible to normalize relations with it, transferring it to the category of at least relatively neutral countries, now the transfer of the islands meant that American military bases would soon appear on them. As a result, the peace treaty was never concluded - and has not yet been concluded.

Dashing 1990s

Soviet leaders up to Gorbachev did not recognize the existence of a territorial problem in principle. In 1993, already under Yeltsin, the Tokyo Declaration was signed, in which Moscow and Tokyo indicated their intention to resolve the issue of ownership of the South Kuriles. In Russia, this was perceived with considerable concern, in Japan, on the contrary, with enthusiasm.

The northern neighbor was going through hard times, and the most insane projects can be found in the Japanese press of that time - up to the purchase of the islands for a large amount, since the then Russian leadership was ready to make endless concessions to Western partners. But in the end, both Russian fears and Japanese hopes turned out to be groundless: within a few years, Russia's foreign policy course was adjusted in favor of greater realism, and there was no longer any talk of transferring the Kuriles.

In 2004, the question suddenly surfaced again. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Moscow, as a state - the successor of the USSR, is ready to resume negotiations on the basis of the Moscow Declaration - that is, to sign a peace treaty and then, as a gesture of goodwill, give Shikotan and Habomai to Japan. The Japanese did not compromise, and already in 2014, Russia completely returned to Soviet rhetoric, declaring that it had no territorial dispute with Japan.

Moscow's position is completely transparent, understandable and explainable. This is the position of the strong: it is not Russia that is demanding something from Japan - quite the opposite, the Japanese are making claims that they cannot back up either militarily or politically. Accordingly, on the part of Russia, we can only talk about a gesture of good will - and nothing more. Economic relations with Japan, they develop in their own way, the islands do not affect them in any way, and the transfer of the islands will not speed them up or slow them down in any way.

At the same time, the transfer of islands may entail a number of consequences, and their magnitude depends on which islands will be transferred.

The sea is closed, the sea is open

“This is a success that Russia has been moving towards for many years… In terms of the volume of reserves, these territories are a real Ali Baba’s cave, access to which opens up huge opportunities and prospects for the Russian economy… The inclusion of an enclave in the Russian shelf establishes Russia’s exclusive rights to subsoil and seabed resources enclave, including fishing for sessile species, i.e. crabs, shellfish, and so on, and also extends Russian jurisdiction over the territory of the enclave in terms of fishing, safety, environmental protection requirements.”

So the Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology of Russia Sergey Donskoy in 2013 commented on the news that the UN subcommittee had decided to recognize the Sea of ​​Okhotsk as an inland sea of ​​Russia.

Until that moment, in the very center of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, there was an enclave stretching from north to south with an area of ​​​​52 thousand square meters. km, for its characteristic shape called the "Peanut Hole" (Peanut Hole). The fact is that the 200-mile special economic zone of Russia did not reach the very center of the sea - thus, the waters there were considered international and ships of any states could fish in them and mine minerals. After the UN subcommission approved the Russian application, the sea became completely Russian.

This story had many heroes: scientists who proved that the seabed in the Peanut Hole area is the continental shelf, diplomats who managed to defend Russian claims, and others. Japan presented a surprise during the voting at the UN: Tokyo was one of the first to support the Russian application. This gave rise to a lot of rumors that Russia was ready to make concessions on the Kuriles in exchange, but they remained rumors.

What will happen to the status of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk if Russia gives Japan two islands - Shikotan and Habomai? Absolutely nothing. None of them is washed by its waters, therefore, no changes are expected. But if Moscow also gives up Kunashir and Iturup to Tokyo, the situation will not be so clear-cut.

The distance between Kunashir and Sakhalin is less than 400 nautical miles, that is, the special economic zone of Russia completely covers the south of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. But there are already 500 nautical miles from Sakhalin to Urup: a corridor leading to the Peanut Hole is being formed between the two parts of the economic zone. It is difficult to predict what consequences this will entail.

At the border, the seiner walks gloomily

A similar situation is developing in the military sphere. Kunashir is separated from Japanese Hokkaido by the Straits of Treason and Kunashir; between Kunashir and Iturup lies the Catherine Strait, between Iturup and Urup - the Friza Strait. Now the straits of Ekaterina and Friza are under full Russian control, Treason and Kunashirsky are under surveillance. Not a single enemy submarine or ship will be able to enter the Sea of ​​Okhotsk through the Kuril Islands unnoticed, while Russian submarines and ships can safely exit through the deep-sea straits of Catherine and Friz.

In the event that Japan transfers the two islands to Russian ships, it will be more difficult to use the Catherine Strait; in the event of the transfer of four, Russia will completely lose control over the straits of Treason, Kunashirsky and Ekaterina and will only be able to monitor the Friza strait. Thus, a hole is formed in the system of protection of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, which cannot be repaired.

The economy of the Kuril Islands is tied primarily to the extraction and processing of fish. There is no economy on Habomai due to the lack of population, on Shikotan, where about 3 thousand people live, there is a fish cannery. Of course, in the event of the transfer of these islands to Japan, it will be necessary to decide the fate of the people living on them and the enterprises, and this decision will not be easy.

But if Russia gives up Iturup and Kunashir, the consequences will be much greater. Now about 15 thousand people live on these islands, infrastructure is being actively built, in 2014 an international airport was launched on Iturup. But most importantly - Iturup is rich in minerals. There, in particular, is the only economically profitable deposit of rhenium - one of the rarest metals. Before the collapse of the USSR, Russian industry received it from the Kazakh Dzhezkazgan, and the deposit on the Kudryavy volcano is a chance to completely end dependence on rhenium imports.

Thus, if Russia gives Japan Habomai and Shikotan, it will lose part of its territory and suffer relatively small economic losses; if, in addition, it gives up Iturup and Kunashir, it will suffer much more both economically and strategically. But in any case, you can give only when the other side has something to offer in return. Tokyo has nothing to offer yet.

Russia wants peace - but with a strong, peaceful and friendly Japan pursuing an independent foreign policy. In the current conditions, when experts and politicians are talking louder and louder about the new cold war, the ruthless logic of confrontation comes into play again: by handing over to Japan, which maintains anti-Russian sanctions and retains American bases on its territory, Habomai and Shikotan, not to mention Kunashir and Iturup, Russia risks simply losing the islands without receiving anything in return. It is unlikely that Moscow is ready to go for it.

The silent glanders are surrendering the Kuriles to Japan. These days in the Far East of our country, events are taking place that should not have happened. Events that will have far-reaching consequences.

We have in mind the visit by the Japanese Minister for Okinawa and the Northern Territories, Mr. Yamamoto, to two Kuril Islands: Kunashir and Iturup.
Previously, Japanese ministers only looked at the islands from helicopters or from the nearby island of Hokkaido through binoculars.

Now Minister Ichito Yamamoto wanders around the islands, visited a Japanese cemetery, and, together with Russian schoolchildren, cleaned up garbage on the coast. On his next visit, he will remove the Russians from the coast like garbage.

Moreover, Japan has agreed with our side on visa-free trips of the Japanese to the islands, directly on the internal Japanese passport.
The arrival of the first groups of Japanese citizens is expected.

It can be assumed that behind our backs, a gradual surrender of the two islands of the southern Kuriles is being prepared at the beginning. Assuming, it is safe to say that this will be the case.

And then, we can expect that the Japanese will extort two more islands from Russia in exchange for some rubbish, used right-hand drive cars, pocket mirrors or kimonos. Kimono and mirrors are exaggerations, but it's a bad thing, since the Japanese minister freely roams our territory.

The president and the government are toying with the idea of ​​concluding a peace treaty with Japan, which Russia needs like a dog's fifth leg. For the sake of this agreement, VVPutin, our supreme leader and sole decider of the country's fate, apparently agreed to surrender the islands.

Only after the islands will the Japanese begin to moan that we give them South Sakhalin, the Koenigsberg Germans and their children and descendants will revive, and Angela Merkel will begin to demand Kaliningrad region, which oh, how vulnerable.

Wake up, national forces! Stop chasing uncomplaining migrants from Central Asia around Moscow and St. Petersburg, get down to business, our territories, strategically important islands in an area rich in seafood are being quietly taken away from us.

JAPANESE MINISTER OF STATE FOR "NORTHERN TERRITORIES" ARRIVED TO KUNASHIR.

Immediately after passing through border control, he went to an official meeting with the authorities of the village of Yuzhno-Kurilsk. Tonight Yamamoto will leave for Iturup. There, the minister will also talk with the authorities and meet with the local population.

In the afternoon, Yamamoto will meet with Vasily Solomko, Mayor of the Yuzhno-Kuril urban district, and go sightseeing. The Japanese minister will stay on Kunashir until the evening, after which he will go to another island - Iturup. The official part of the visit starts there.

Yamamoto is expected to meet with the local population and visit the Japanese cemetery. Before the start of the visit, the Japanese authorities noted that they perceive the trip as a reminder of the need to return the South Kuriles to Japanese control.

However, according to the program of the visit, the parties will limit themselves to discussing the visa-free regime that has existed for residents of Japan since 1991.

According to Andrei Fisyun, a senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics, the existence of such a border regime is strategically important for the Japanese. According to him, Tokyo thus decides the legitimacy of its claims to the territory.

About whether we should expect any changes on the territorial issue, the head of the Center for Japanese Studies of the Institute told Life News Far East Valery Kistanov.

I do not think that this will be a breakthrough in our relations with Japan. Rather, it is just another step within the framework of the agreements that were reached between President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during his visit to Moscow on April 29, says Valery Kistanov. - That visit could just be called a landmark, since it took place 10 years after the last visit of the previous prime minister. Now our relations with Japan are on the rise - Putin and Abe have agreed to resume negotiations on a peace treaty, and this already implies a decision territorial issues. Now we are waiting for Minister Lavrov's visit to Japan in November. It will take place in a new 2+2 format for us: the defense ministers and foreign ministers of the two countries will simultaneously participate in the talks. Japan uses this format only with its closest allies - the United States and Australia. It is obvious that these negotiations will achieve the first visible steps to develop the situation with the disputed islands.

Remember how Bulgakov's caretaker Ivan Vasilyevich, by misunderstanding, climbed onto the Moscow throne, gave Russian territory "for so", out of stupidity. “What are you, a son of a bitch, an impostor, squandering government lands?! So you won’t save any volosts! ”

The journalists said that Putin was soaping up to sell our Kuril Islands for $2 trillion, one piece per island, and thereby compensate himself and Caudle for losses from Cypriot and other thieves' flights, including the Swiss and American investigations into GunVOR Timchenko. (“The Kuril problem: Putin promotes the mysterious idea of ​​“hikiwake””).
That's why the Japanese flew in, arguing about the amount with the traitor.

Remember how Bulgakov's caretaker Ivan Vasilyevich, by misunderstanding, climbed onto the Moscow throne, gave Russian territory "for so", out of stupidity. “What are you, a son of a bitch, an impostor, squandering government lands?! So you won’t save any volosts!”
This one is for money out of meanness.

Explosions of houses in Moscow and Volgodonsk, preparations in Ryazan, Beslan, the Kursk submarine, offshore territory with oil and gas given to Norway. Now - the Kuriles.
And the loot stolen from the country - how many lives they didn’t cure, didn’t save - God knows.
May be enough?

Just in case: by the decision of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation 8-P2013, his “election” was actually canceled, because:
The Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation recognized that the elections consist of 2 parts. Inseparable and inalienable according to the Constitution. The second part - about challenging - was not legalized.
And since there was no law, there were no elections.
The conclusion is simple: Putin is illegal, he is a usurper.
When we drive out the occupiers, and ours come, remember, we have achieved legal grounds to cancel all the paths of betrayal from 03/04/2012 at least. Shish to him, not Judas grandmother.

On Saturday, November 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the capital of Peru, Lima. In mid-December, Putin will also visit Japan directly. At the moment, consultations are ongoing between Russia and Japan on the conclusion of a peace treaty, the obstacle to which remains the problem of the so-called Northern Territories, as the Japanese side calls the Kuril Islands. Tokyo, as you know, considers the Kuriles occupied territory. In a September interview with an American agency Bloomberg Putin said that a search is underway for a solution that will suit everyone. This issue could also become a subject of discussion at the meeting of the newly elected US President Donald Trump with Abe, which took place on November 18 in New York. However, Russian publicist Leonid Radzikhovsky doubts that the United States, and even more so Trump, may be interested in the fate of the Kuril Islands. Nor does he believe Putin would be willing to sacrifice his tough-guy reputation by handing over the disputed islands to Japan.

At the meeting between Trump and Abe, any issue could be discussed. But, frankly, I don’t think that the Americans, and even more so Trump, who, it seems to me, is not so in the context of Russian-Japanese relations, has any definite opinion about the Kuril Islands. This is a question so infinitely distant from America that it is unlikely that Trump has any position. Will Russia and Japan conclude a peace treaty? It's hard for me to understand how this affects the US.

Context

Free hectare on a Japanese island

Sankei Shimbun10/21/2016

Is Russia ready to return two islands?

Sankei Shimbun 10/12/2016

Kuril crystal ball

Tygodnik Powszechny 02.10.2016

How will Moscow and Tokyo divide the Kuriles?

Deutsche Welle 02.08.2016
At one time, in 1993, Boris Yeltsin traveled to Japan. Before leaving, he smiled slyly and said: "I have 50 ways to solve the problem of the Kuril Islands." He put on his signature sly smile and left. And then he returned and said: “We have one way - our islands. Everyone, let the Japanese do what they want!” Note that this was at a time when Russia was in debt, like silk, she desperately needed money, and economic situation Russia seemed hopeless.

I do not believe that Putin will give the islands to Japan. This is so contrary to the image of a collector of Russian lands, a tough macho and a man who “outplayed everyone”, that Putin will not be able to outplay 150 million Russian citizens in this matter. Yes, Putin can easily give quite large chunks of territory to the Chinese. Because this territory is not noticeable, not symbolic. And because this is China, about which a common opinion has already been established in Russia, that this is our older brother, best friend and defender against the Americans. After all, China is China.

The Kuril Islands have a symbolic meaning. I don’t know if Russia needs them or absolutely not, and if they are needed, then for what. And no one in Russia knows about it. But these are symbolic islands. And I do not believe that Putin will be able to give them to anyone. These are islands of prestige. Just like Crimea is a peninsula of prestige. Although for Ukraine Crimea probably has several greater value: a resort where everyone went, after all.

I think when Putin spoke about the option that suits everyone, he could have in mind, as a last resort, the option of joint management of the Kuril Islands, which is quite beneficial for Russia and does not drop Putin's prestige. But, as far as I understand, there is no such example in the world that a territory belongs to two countries. Management is possible. Invite whoever you want. But the land belongs, through laws, citizenship and taxes, to one country. There may even be joint border guards and dual citizenship, but whose laws to follow? If someone stole a goat, will he be judged according to Japanese law or Russian? Therefore, joint management is beautiful words that do not understand what they mean.

I think Putin agrees to joint management. But to give even one or two islands to Japan is the loss of symbolic capital. And Putin, apart from symbolic capital, does not need any other capital. It is unlikely that there is a denouement here that will satisfy the vanity and ambitions of both sides.

The Japanese seem to have already decided everything. Sami. They have already handed over the Kuril Islands to themselves, and from the visit of the Russian president to Japan they are only waiting for a formal announcement about this. At least, the psychological picture in today's Japan is exactly this, many observers say. Then they ask themselves: but is Vladimir Putan ready to make such an announcement? And what will be the disappointment of the Japanese when the Russian president does not say anything about the transfer of the islands?

Or will he say? Maybe the Japanese know something that we Russians don't know?

What can the Japanese demand?

The main leitmotif in the Japanese press and Japanese discussions about the Kuriles is the readiness to exchange investments for the islands. They call this the "zero option": they say that the islands are ours anyway, but the bitterness of the loss of territories must be sweetened for the Russians. Their economic affairs are bad, so the multibillion-dollar Japanese investments will come in handy for the Russians. And the cherry on this cake will be the signing of a peace treaty, which, they say, will end the state of war between Japan and Russia.

And, in fact, what legal grounds do the Japanese have to dispute the ownership of the islands? What do they have besides a constant stubborn pressure?

“The Japanese made a claim to the islands immediately after the conclusion of the San Francisco Treaty between the allies and Japan, but there is no need to talk about any legal grounds,” said German Gigolaev, scientific secretary of the Institute of World History (IVI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in a conversation with Tsargrad. since the USSR did not sign this peace treaty with Japan then, in 1951, they made claims on this basis. Well, ears, probably, as always, stick out from the US State Department - they asked the Japanese to put forward claims, and they put forward."

That's all the reason: give it back, because we want it, and the owner ordered ...

True, there were voices that Tokyo might consider signing a peace treaty without transferring four (more precisely, three in bulk) islands from the Kuril chain. There were also voices that the Japanese government was ready to be satisfied with two of them. The authoritative Japanese newspaper "Kyodo" published a version of this, citing a source in the Cabinet of Ministers.

However, then these versions were refuted, and the picture remained the same: Japan should get everything! By the way, in the variant of a compromise with two islands, the strategy is aimed at all four. It's purely a matter of tactics. In the same article in "Kyodo" it is directly stated: the transfer of the two islands will be only the "first phase" of the settlement of the territorial issue. Similarly, the option of joint Russian-Japanese administration of the southern part of the Kuriles is no longer valid: the government resolutely refuted the corresponding report of the Nikkei newspaper back in October.

Thus, the position of Tokyo remains unchanged, and any compromise options turn out to be useless and meaningless: the winner, as they say, takes everything.
And the winner, of course, in any exchange of the islands for any financial "buns" will be - and will be announced - the Japanese. For money is nothing more than money, and territory is never less than territory. Let us recall what place Alaska occupies in the Russian national consciousness with the history of its sale. And it’s clear, it’s clear that in the middle of the 19th century it was unprofitable, inconvenient, practically uninhabited by Russian land, which the British or Americans would have taken away one way or another simply by the fact of its gradual settlement. And what kind of borders could have stopped them if gold had been discovered there earlier, when Alaska was still under Russian jurisdiction!

So it seems to be correct and inevitable - at least they received the money, and not just lost the land - Alaska should have been sold. But does anyone thank Tsar Alexander II for this today?

Kurile Islands. On the island of Kunashir. Fishing. Photo: Vyacheslav Kiselev/TASS

What can the Japanese give?

The only thing that can justify the transfer of the territory of the country to another state in the minds of the people is, perhaps, only an exchange for other territories. As, for example, they did this with the Chinese, correcting the status of individual islands on the Amur. Yes, they gave away some land, but they also received it, and even a little more. But what lands can the Japanese give us in exchange? Is it the island of Okinawa with American military bases? It is unlikely - it is unlikely that among Japanese politicians there will be at least one capable of arranging such a "movement" ...
So, Japan has no land for us. Is there money?

And it depends what. Just recently, 10 billion dollars were received for a 19.5% stake in Rosneft. In total, the corporation promised "an overall effect, taking into account the capitalized synergies between PJSC NK Rosneft and PJSC ANK Bashneft, in the amount of more than 1.1 trillion rubles ($ 17.5 billion), cash receipts to the budget in the fourth quarter 2016 will amount to 1,040 billion rubles ($16.3 billion)."

Igor Sechin called this deal the largest in the history of the country. But these are just shares of just one state corporation, of which there are far more than one in Russia. Yes, as noted by a number of observers, sold at a fierce discount relative to the true value of the company.

Attention, the question is: how much money would Japan be willing to pay for our islands? Even if it's a tenfold higher amount - with $1.248 trillion in international reserves it can find it relatively painlessly - is it worth the candle? What economic effect will Japan get from the southern Kuril chain? It is clear that there will certainly be some effect - at least from the exploitation of marine resources in the adjacent water area. But the problem is that money is given - if given - by completely different people, far from the fishing industry.

Photo: Sergey Krasnoukhov / TASS

Until the first shout of the owner ...

However, it's not about money - even if they really were given to us. What can be purchased with them? The most valuable thing in today's world for Russia is technology and machine tools. Will the Japanese give them to us? You can be sure - no. Serious technologies are a closed subject for us for reasons of secrecy. A similar problem is with machine tools: yes, we need them after the total destruction of industry in the 90s, much more important is the technology for their production. At one time, the USSR had already made a mistake when, after the war, it brought German machine tools to its territory as requisition. Rather, it was a forced measure - there were actually no good machine tools in the USSR before the war, and even more so after. But only in this way the industry turned out to be tied to obsolete models, but Germany, forcedly "undressed" in this respect, forcedly, but extremely effectively, modernized its machine park.

But even if we assume that the Japanese somehow get around other people's restrictions in this matter - and these are primarily American restrictions dictated, by the way, by interests and national security - how long will they be able to portray "nobility"? Until the very first independent movement of Russia, which Washington would not like. For example, the final capture of Aleppo. The coalition of Western countries has already threatened us with new sanctions for this and kept the old ones. Will the Japanese be able to disobey their main allies? Never!

Thus, everything turns out to be simple: even if Russia gives up the islands in exchange for money or technology, very soon it will not have either one or the other. And islands, of course.

What is Russia losing?

From a purely material point of view, the Kudryavy rhenium volcano alone on Iturup Island, which annually ejects $70 million worth of this valuable metal for defense needs, makes the loss of the islands a very mismanagement act. In Alaska, at least there was an excuse - the then Russian authorities did not know about either gold or oil in this distant land. According to the Kuriles, there is no such justification.
What happens if you give up the islands?

“Nothing good will happen,” the historian Gigolaev answers. “The zone of international waters in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, which are not subject to our national jurisdiction, will immediately increase. Plus, several straits are blocked for our warships to exit through them from the Sea of ​​​​Okhotsk to the open ocean.”

Of course, the extraction of fish and seafood in the surrounding water area gives rather big incomes. At the same time, there is also the right to limit this production in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk for the same Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, because the possession of four islands makes this sea inland for Russia.
But these are still pleasant, but trifles against the background of what the loss of the islands in the geostrategic sense can turn into. As pointed out by German Gigolaev.

The thing is that since the Second World War, Japan has not been a sovereign power in the full sense of the word. It is under US military and political control. And if tomorrow the Japanese get at least one of the disputed islands, the day after tomorrow an American military base may appear on it. For example, with the missile defense system, which, as Tsargrad has already written more than once from the words of informed military experts, can be quickly and painlessly converted into an attack complex - just a canopy of Tomahawk cruise missiles. And no one can stop the Americans, and Tokyo in particular cannot.

By the way, they are not particularly eager to ban. Moreover, at the level of the prime minister, the government, and the Foreign Ministry, they have already officially denied any even attempts to make an exception from the security treaty with the United States in relation to the South Kuril Islands, if Russia agrees to give them up. According to Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, the security treaty with the United States "applies and will continue to apply to all territories and water areas that are under the administrative control of Japan."

Accordingly, if desired, access to the Pacific Ocean is blocked for the Russian military fleet, because there are straits that do not freeze in winter, which today are controlled by the Russian military, but will become American. So, as soon as the threatened period comes - and who guarantees that this will never happen? - Immediately the Pacific Fleet can be written off the balance sheet. Indeed, with the same success, a solid naval group led by an aircraft carrier could be based somewhere on Iturup.
Let's agree: the Japanese (or, more likely, their owners, the Americans) came up with a beautiful option. Insignificant for the area of ​​Russia, patches of land immediately deprive Russia of rhenium necessary in military production (in engine building, for example), and valuable resources of sea areas, and access to the ocean in a threatened period.

And this - in the complete absence of reasonable arguments for their rights to these islands! And if, under these conditions, Moscow decides to transfer the islands, then something more terrible will happen than the loss of fish, rhenium, and even access to the ocean. Because it will become clear to everyone: pieces can be pulled out of Russia even without any reasonable justification. That is, pieces can be pulled out of Russia! From Russia! Can!

She allowed...