Special birth rate. Fertility rates for a conditional generation (fertility rates for the period) How is the birth rate measured?

The total fertility rate is a summary, final indicator. It shows how many children an average woman gives birth to during her life from 15 to 50 years of age, provided that throughout the reproductive period of a given generation’s life, age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the calculation period.

where n is the length of the age interval (with the same interval length).

The advantages of this indicator are that its value does not depend on the characteristics of the age structure of the population and the female reproductive contingent; moreover, this indicator with one number allows us to assess the state of the birth rate from the standpoint of ensuring the reproduction of the population.

Total fertility rate per woman in the Russian Federation

The average birth rate per woman over several equal periods of time is calculated using the formula:

during these periods of time

Average birth rate (total population):

2002-2009)=(1.286+1.319+1.34+1.287+1.296+1.406+1.494+1.537)8=

10.9658=1.371(child female)

Average birth rate among the rural population:

2002-2009)=13.7868=1.723 (child female)

Average birth rate among the urban population:

2002-2009)=10.1218=1.265 (child female)

For the period from 2002 to 2009, the average birth rate among the entire population was 1,371 (children women); among the rural population: 1,723 (children, women); among the urban population: 1,265 (children, women).

Based on these data, we can conclude that the majority of women of childbearing age have no more than 1 child, which is not enough for Russian reality. We can also conclude that the birth rate among the rural population is much higher than among the urban population. This is the reason why the total fertility rate of the entire population is so low.

Having examined the overall dynamics of the birth rate, for the period from 2002 to 2009 we can see a steady increase in this indicator. The exception is 2005, when the birth rate sharply decreased compared to 2004 by 0.053 (children/female). In 2006, an upward trend was again observed.

In general, during the period from 2002 to 2009, the birth rate increased by 0.25 1 (children/female) or by 2.7 (persons/thousand) judging by the birth rate. This, however, is also insufficient due to high mortality rates. The main reason for the low birth rate in the Russian Federation is the low standard of living of the population.

Mortality

The second factor influencing the natural movement of the population is mortality. The growth of the population or, on the contrary, its decline directly depends on the relationship between the mortality and birth rates.

Main causes of death

Now let’s look at the dynamics of the percentage of deaths for the main causes of mortality for the period from 2002 to 2009. To do this, let’s take 2003 as the base year when there was the highest percentage of deaths for these reasons (2175985).

Ratio of mortality by main causes in the years from 2002 to 2009 as a percentage of the base (2003) table 5:

The table shows that in different years the percentage of deaths for the listed reasons was different. In 2009, the smallest number of people died from these causes compared to 2002-2009.

Main causes of death by gender

If we consider the main causes of mortality by gender, we can see that in both men and women the main cause of death is diseases of the circulatory system (in women this figure is higher). The second largest cause of death in men is external causes; in women, neoplasms. Moreover, male mortality for these reasons is significantly higher than female mortality. Mortality rates for the remaining causes do not differ significantly by gender and are low.

Infant mortality

	Whole population	Urban population	Rural population
total, man	per 1000 live births	total, man	per 1000 live births	total, man	per 1000 live births

From 2002 to 2009, a steady trend towards a decrease in infant mortality was observed (8.1-13.3 = -5.2 people/thousand). It can be traced both among the rural (9.7-14.9= -5.2 people/thousand) and among the urban population (7.5-12.7= -5.2 people/thousand). However, the infant mortality rate among the rural population (for 2009 9.7 people/thousand) remains at a higher level than among the urban population (for 2009 7.5 people/thousand). If we consider the average value of this indicator from 2002 to 2009, then among the rural population it will be (12.25 people/thousand), among the urban population (9.85 people/thousand), and in general for the entire population (10.5625 people/thousand) and this trend can also be traced. Most likely, this is explained by the fact that in rural areas health care is less developed than in urban areas.

Maternal mortality in the Russian Federation

	Whole population	Urban population	Rural population
total, man	per 100,000 live births	total, man	per 100,000 live births	total, man	per 100,000 live births

Dynamics of maternal mortality in the Russian Federation (chain series of dynamics) 2002-2009 tab. 8:

The dynamics of maternal mortality in the Russian Federation during 2002-2009 are not uniform. Maternal mortality on average during this time was among the entire population (25.34 people/100 thousand), among the rural population (32.54 people/100 thousand), among the urban population (22.375 people/100 thousand). We can conclude that maternal mortality among the rural population is significantly higher than among the urban population (by 10.665 people/100 thousand). The difference between these indicators by 2009 increased even more and amounted to 11.3 people/100 thousand. Since 2002, among the urban population this figure has decreased by 11.3 and among the rural population by 12.6 people/100 thousand. Although, in general, a downward trend has been noticed of this indicator, but also in some years and its increase (2005; 2009). The largest jumps in the indicator were in 2004 and were among urban (-4.5), and among rural (-18.8) people/100 thousand, as well as in 2008 (-10.7) people/100 thousand. The dynamics of this indicator among rural population has much greater dynamism.

Overall mortality rate:

Thus, the mortality rate for example in 2008 was:

Fertility- the process of childbirth in a specific population of people over a certain period of time.
Speaking about fertility in human society, it should be remembered that in this case it is determined not only by biological, but also by socio-economic processes, living conditions, everyday life, traditions, religious attitudes and other factors.

Live birth is the complete expulsion or removal from the mother's body of a product of conception, regardless of the duration of pregnancy, which after such separation breathes or shows other signs of life (heartbeat, pulsation of the umbilical cord or obvious movements of voluntary muscles, regardless of whether the umbilical cord is cut and whether the placenta is separated).

Viable(according to WHO definition) is considered a child born at 20-22 weeks of gestation and later with a body weight of 500 g and above, in which at least one of the signs of live birth is determined after birth.

Stillbirth is the death of the product of conception before it is completely expelled or removed from the mother’s body, regardless of the duration of pregnancy. Fetal death is indicated by the absence of breathing or any other signs of life, such as heartbeat, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or voluntary muscle movements.

Organization of birth registration

According to the law, within a month from the date of birth, all children must be registered with the registry office at the place of their birth or the place of residence of their parents. Registration of the birth of a found child, whose parents are unknown, is carried out within 7 days from the date of his finding at the request of the guardianship and trusteeship authority, the administration of the child care institution where the child is placed, the territorial body of the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the person with whom the child is located. Along with the application, documents (act, protocol, certificate) indicating the time, place and circumstances of the discovery of the child and a certificate from the medical institution about the child’s age are provided to the registry office.

The main document for registering a child with the registry office is the “Medical Birth Certificate” (f. 103/u-08). It is issued upon discharge of the mother from the hospital by all health care institutions where the birth took place, in all cases of live birth. In the case of a home birth, the “Medical Birth Certificate” is issued by the institution whose medical worker delivered the birth. In case of multiple births, a “Medical Birth Certificate” is filled out for each child separately.

In populated areas and medical institutions where medical personnel work, a “Medical Birth Certificate” must be drawn up by a doctor. In rural areas, in health care facilities where there are no doctors, it can be issued by the midwife or paramedic who attended the birth.

In the event of the death of a child before the mother leaves the maternity hospital or other medical institution, a “Medical Birth Certificate” must also be filled out, which is submitted along with the “Perinatal Death Certificate” to the registry office.

A record of the issuance of a “Medical Birth Certificate” indicating its number and date of issue must be made in the “History of the Development of a Newborn” (f. 097/u), in the case of stillbirth - in the “History of Childbirth” (f. 096/u). To take into account the birth rate and calculate a number of demographic indicators, it is extremely important to determine whether the child was born alive or dead, gestational age, term, etc.

Live birth statistics

Health care institutions register in the medical records all live and stillborn births with a birth weight of 500 g or more. The following are subject to registration with the registry office:

• born alive with a body weight of 1000 g or more (or, if birth weight is unknown, a body length of 35 cm or more or a gestation period of 28 weeks or more), including newborns weighing 1000 g in multiple births;
• those born alive with a body weight from 500 to 999 g are also subject to registration with the registry office as live births in cases where they lived more than 168 hours after birth.

Premature Children born at a gestational age of less than 37 weeks and showing signs of prematurity are considered.

Full term Children are considered to be born between 37 and 40 weeks of gestation.

Post-term Children are considered to be those born at a gestational age of 41 to 43 weeks and showing signs of overmaturity. In addition, the concept prolonged or physiologically prolonged pregnancy, which lasts more than 42 weeks and ends with the birth of a full-term, functionally mature child without signs of overmaturity and danger to his life.

Due to the peculiarities of obstetric tactics and nursing of children born at different gestational ages, it is advisable to distinguish the following intervals:

• premature birth at 22-27 weeks (fetal weight from 500 to 1000 g);
• premature birth at 28-33 weeks (fetal weight 1000-1800 g);
• premature birth at 34-37 weeks (fetal weight 1900-2500 g).

The highest percentage of premature births occurs at 34-37 weeks of pregnancy (55.3%); during pregnancy 22-27 weeks, abortions occur 10 times less often (5.7%).

Risk factors for premature birth are both socio-demographic (unsettled family life, low social level, age under 20 or over 35 years old) and medical (previous abortions and premature births, spontaneous miscarriages, urinary tract infections, inflammatory diseases of the genitals, endocrine violations).

Every year, more than 40 thousand births registered in the Russian Federation are premature. The proportion of normal births in 2002 was 31.7% (2000 - 31.1%).

Total fertility rate- calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to the average population for a period, usually a year. For clarity, this ratio is multiplied by 1000 and measured in ppm.

Scheme for estimating the total fertility level
Crude birth rate (per 1000 population)	Birth rate
To 10	Very low
10-15	Short
16-20	Below the average
21-25	Average
26-30	Above average
31-40	High
More than 40	Very tall

The value of the total fertility rate depends not only on the intensity of the birth rate (the average number of live births), but also on demographic and other characteristics, primarily on the age, sex and marriage structure of the population. Therefore, it gives only the very first, approximate idea of ​​the birth rate. To eliminate the influence of these demographic structures on fertility rates, other, clarifying indicators are calculated.

Calculated in relation to the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years).

General and special fertility rates are related to each other by the ratio:

Age-specific birth rates (fertility) measure the birth rate in a specific age group of women and are calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women of a certain age group to the average annual number of women in this age group.

When calculating special and age-specific fertility rates (fertility), it is customary to assign all births to mothers under 15 years of age to the age of 15 years or to the interval 15-19 years. Births to mothers whose age exceeds 49 years are attributed, respectively, to the age of 49 years or to the interval 44-49 years. This does not reduce the accuracy of determining age-specific coefficients for these ages due to the very small number of births in the youngest (under 15 years) and in the oldest (50 years and older) ages. However, if the purpose of the study is to study the fertility of these particular age groups, then, of course, age-specific coefficients for them are calculated according to the general rule.

Age-specific fertility rates (fertility) make it possible to analyze the level and dynamics of fertility intensity in a conventional generation, free from the influence of the age structure of both the population as a whole and women of reproductive age. This is their advantage over general and special fertility rates. However, the inconvenience of age-specific coefficients is that their number is too large: if these coefficients are calculated for one-year intervals, then there are 35 of them, and if for 5-year intervals, then 7. To overcome this difficulty and be able to analyze the level and dynamics of fertility using one indicator, also free from the influence of the age structure, the so-called cumulative fertility rates are calculated, of which the total fertility rate (fertility) is the most famous and widespread.

Cumulative birth rate (fertility) characterizes the average number of births per woman in a hypothetical generation over her entire life while maintaining existing birth rates at each age, regardless of mortality rates and changes in the age composition. The value of the total fertility rate (fertility) above 4.0 is considered high, less than 2.15 - low. Thus, in 2002, the total fertility rate in the Russian Federation was 1.32 children per woman, which does not even ensure simple generation replacement.

Partial fertility rates are calculated to remove the influence of other demographic structures. In particular, where out-of-wedlock births occupy a significant place among all births, they calculate

• marital birth rate (fertility) rate
• out-of-wedlock birth rate (fertility)

In 2002, in the Russian Federation, 411.5 thousand children were born outside of a registered marriage, or 29.5% of the total number of births.

In addition to the age of the mother, the number of children a woman has given birth to in the past, or the order of birth, is important in fertility analysis. In demography, the following fertility indicators are used by birth order for a conventional generation:

• special fertility rate (fertility) by birth order;
• age-specific fertility rate by birth order.

It is a very informative indicator when analyzing the process of declining fertility, since among a population with low fertility, the values ​​of this coefficient for higher birth orders are practically equal to zero.

Complements the previous indicator taking into account the age structure of women of reproductive age.

Indicator name		Calculation method		Initial forms of stat. documents
Total fertility rate	=		x 1000	f. 103/у-08
		Average annual population
Special birth rate (fertility) rate	=	Total number of live births per year	x 1000	f. 103/у-08
		Average annual number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years)*
Age-specific birth rate (fertility)	=	Number of births to women of a certain age group	x 1000	f. 103/у-08
		Average annual number of women in this age group
Total birth rate (fertility)	=	Sum of age-specific fertility rates (for ages 15 to 49 years)		f. 103/у-08
		1000
Marital birth rate (fertility)	=	Number of children born in marriage	x 1000	f. 103/у-08
		Number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) who are married
Out-of-wedlock birth rate (fertility)	=	Number of children born out of wedlock	x 1000	f. 103/у-08
		Number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) who are not married
Special fertility rate (fertility) by birth order	=	Number of births of the i-th order	x 1000	f. 103/у-08
		Number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years)
Age-specific fertility rate by birth order	=	Number of births of the i-th order in women of a certain age group	x 1000	f. 103/у-08
		The number of women in this age group

*According to WHO definition, reproductive age is considered to be 15-45 years.

Now let's return again to age-specific fertility rates. If we keep in mind the mentioned difficulties with using marital fertility rates, then ordinary age-specific coefficients, not differentiated by marital status, remain the best indicators of the birth rate, providing good opportunities for analyzing its state and dynamics. As already noted, their advantage is their independence from the influence of the age structure within the female reproductive age group. But they also have a drawback, which is that there are many of them. When using one-year odds, there will be as many as 35 (from 15 to 49 years inclusive).

In the case of using five-year coefficients, their number is already significantly less - 7, but there are still many of them left for review. Moreover, the dynamics of the coefficients can be different, sometimes to the contrary. In fact, the trend in rates in most economically developed countries in the current century has been such that in younger age groups the birth rates grew up while in the older ones they decreased. Sometimes, looking at the picture of the dynamics of age-specific birth rates, it is difficult to decide what is really happening - the birth rate is decreasing or increasing. And some scientific speculators disinterestedly take advantage of this circumstance, claiming that the birth rate in our country is not decreasing. We need one general indicator that would combine the advantages of an entire system of indicators. And there is such an indicator. His name is -- total fertility rate.

The total fertility rate is calculated by summing the age-specific fertility rates and multiplying them by the length of each age interval in whole years (for one-year rates the multiplier is 1, for five-year rates it is 5, etc.). Total amount shares per 1000, i.e. the indicator is expressed per woman on average. The calculation formula is:

Where TFR -- total fertility rate; F x -- age coefficients; n-- length of the age interval (if the interval length is the same, it can be taken out of the sum sign, i.e., first add the coefficients, and then multiply the sum of the coefficients once by the length of the age interval. If the intervals are different in length (rarely, but it happens) , then each coefficient will have to be multiplied separately by the corresponding length of the age interval).

The total fertility rate is one of the summary, final indicators that are constructed using both the real and conditional generation methods. The above formula for calculating the total coefficient refers to a conditional generation, i.e., we consider all age-specific fertility rates related to different real generations of women, conditionally as relating to one generation that supposedly lived in a given calendar year, in the year of observation, throughout their reproductive life, from 15 to 50 years.

The total fertility rate shows how many children an average woman gives birth to during her entire life from 15 to 50 years of age, provided that throughout the reproductive period of the life of a given generation, age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the calculation period.

Let's look at an example of calculating the total fertility rate (see Table 5.1).

Table 5.1

Age and total fertility rates in Russia in 1995.

Fertility rates in specified age groups, %	Total fertility rate, TFR

As a matter of fact, Table 5.1 presents the initial data for the calculation (age-specific fertility rates) and the result of the calculation (total coefficient). The calculation itself consists of the arithmetic action of summing the coefficients, multiplying the sum of the coefficients by 5 (the length of the age interval) and dividing it by 1000. Obviously, these simple actions do not need to be demonstrated.

The total fertility rate obtained in Table 5.1, equal to 1.345 (or, according to government statistics, 1.344) is interpreted as follows. If the age-specific fertility rates of 1995 remain the same, for an indefinitely long time, one woman on average from the conventional generation of women who lived the entire reproductive period of their lives in 1995 gave birth (sometimes they say she would give birth, but there is no need for this at all, if we understand , what kind of woman are we talking about) 1,345 children.

The total ratio is the best indicator of fertility. It has the following advantages:

• 1. Its value does not depend (or almost does not depend) on the characteristics of the age structure of the population and the female reproductive contingent;
• 2. This indicator in one number allows you to assess the state of the birth rate from the standpoint of ensuring the reproduction of the population. For such an assessment, it is enough just to remember the critical threshold value of the total fertility rate, corresponding to the level of simple population reproduction.

In conditions of the lowest mortality (say, Japanese), simple reproduction of the population is ensured by a birth rate with a total fertility rate equal to 2,08 baby(can be rounded to 2.1, but not to a whole number). In Russia, we do not have the lowest mortality rate, but we also have a critical value of the total fertility rate of 2.12 (i.e., it differs little from the Japanese level).

Then, for example, dividing the actual total fertility rate, in particular 1.23 (for Russia in 1997), by its critical value of 2.12, without any other, sometimes quite complex and time-consuming calculations, we find out that the current level The birth rate in our country ensures population reproduction (or otherwise, generation replacement) by only 58.0%, i.e. a little more than half. And when the age structure of our population comes into full compliance with modern levels of fertility and mortality, each next generation will be almost half smaller in number than the previous one.

Of course, even this best indicator of fertility, which is the total coefficient, cannot do without shortcomings. These include:

• 1. Dependence of the coefficient on the level and changes in marriage rates. As the marriage rate increases or decreases, the total coefficient increases or decreases accordingly, while the number of children in each individual family will remain unchanged or change in the opposite direction than the marriage rate.
• 2. The value of the coefficient also depends on changes in the timing of the birth of children, on the distribution of intervals between successive births during the reproductive period of a woman’s life. This distribution is called timing of births(from English -- timing of births - distribution of births in the reproductive period) or sometimes “birth calendar”. The first option is more preferable because it is not associated with any associations.

Let's try to explain the concept of timing with the following example. In modern economically developed countries with low fertility, where most spouses effectively control the number and timing of their children, two children can be born one year or ten years apart. Finding themselves in unfavorable economic, psychological or other conditions, spouses can postpone the desired birth for several years and realize it later, when the situation improves. If there are many such families, then the change in timing will affect the fluctuations of all fertility indicators. In one period they will increase, in another they will fall (unless, of course, the total number of children that the spouses would like to have or are planning to have does not change). Indicators of a conditional generation react to timing, while indicators of a real generation will reflect only the final result of the birth of children by a given generation (cohort) of women.

Therefore, a temporary, timing, increase in the birth rate, for example, after a one-time government decree promising some benefits to families for the birth of an additional number of children, cannot be interpreted simply as an “increase” in the birth rate. It must be assessed as it deserves, i.e. like the splash of a wave, which will most likely be followed by its fall.

Some statisticians have long been reluctant to understand the nature of fluctuations in the birth rate. With the next increase in the coefficients, they believed that the birth rate had finally begun to increase (and in fairness, it must be said that there were many scientists, quite respectable ones, who held the same opinion). When the next wave of growth ended in an even deeper failure than before, such statistics remained modestly silent. Thus, the impression was created that the birth rate in the country is constantly growing.

Fertility is a mass demographic process that covers the entire set of single acts of childbirth in a given territory over a certain period of time (usually a year). It is associated with the actual implementation of fertility (the ability of the female body to reproduce life) in human society. The birth rate is determined by many factors. They can be divided into the following groups: 1) natural biological factors - heredity, environmental conditions, biological rhythms, etc.; 2) socio-economic factors - standard of living of the population, development of the healthcare system, employment of women in public production, wars, etc.; 3) demographic (structural) factors - gender, marriage, territorial, age, nationality, etc. composition of the population.

When calculating fertility rates, data were provided from the statistical collection of Rostat “Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2010”

Age-specific birth rate represents the ratio of the number of births during a period to mothers of age x to the average number of all women of this age:

Where - age-specific birth rate;

-number of births to mothers of age x;

-length of the period;

-average number of women of age x.

Table 13 - Age-specific birth rate data

The age-specific fertility rate shows the number of births on average per 1000 women of each age group.

Special Fertility Rate– the ratio of the number of births to the number of women of reproductive age.

,

Where
- special birth rate;

-absolute number of births during the period;

-length of the period;

-average number of women of reproductive age.

Table 14 – data for 2012, births and number of women

	Born
	the entire population	urban population	rural population

Table 15 – Special fertility rate

The special birth rate (fertility) rate shows the average number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49 years.

Total fertility rate is calculated by summing age-specific fertility rates and multiplying them by the length of the age interval in whole years. The amount is ultimately divided by 1000, i.e. the indicator is expressed per 1 woman:

,

Where
- total fertility rate;

-length of the age interval;

-age-specific birth rate.

Table 16 – Total fertility rate

The total fertility rate depends on the age composition of the population and shows how many children, on average, one woman would give birth to during her life if the existing birth rate were maintained at each age.

Study of changes in crude birth rates using the index method

To implement this method, you will need the already familiar formula for the general fertility rate, expressed through a special fertility rate:

Where - age-specific birth rates,

FERTILITY RATES

FERTILITY RATES, measures of the birth rate, defined as the ratio of the number of live births to the corresponding number. number us. Like other coefficients. demographic intensity processes, K., r. classified into general, special (male and female) and private (age, cumulative, etc.) coefficients.

The most common is the general (rough) coefficient. birth rate (n), which is calculated as

n = N/(T*P)*1000,

where T is the period (years); R - number us. to the middle of the period (average-year population); N is the number of children born during this period. It is usually calculated in ppm (o /oo). According to the approximate rating scale proposed by B. Ts. Urlanis and V. A. Borisov, the overall coefficients. less than 16 o /oo are considered low, from 16 to 24 o /oo - average, from 25 to 29 o /oo - above average, from 30 to 39 o /oo - high, and 40 o /oo and more - very high. The value of the total coefficient The birth rate depends not only on the intensity of the birth rate process, but also on the age, sex and marriage structure of the population, therefore it gives only an approximate idea of ​​the level of birth rate.

Specialist. coefficient birth rate (F) - the ratio of the number of births (N) to the number. women of reproductive age, usually 15-49, sometimes (in low-fertility countries) 15-44 years (W):

F = N/(TW) * 1000.

General coefficient is associated with the following special relation:

where k is the share of women 15-49 years old in all of us. The parameter k ranges from 20 to 30 o /oo, therefore analytical. special meaning coefficient approximately the same as the total; the ratio between them is almost unchanged. The value of the coefficient depends on the age structure of women 15-49 years old. The birth rate at 15 years of age is close to zero, between 20 and 30 years of age it reaches a maximum and tapers off by age 50. Specialist. coefficient The birth rate is sometimes calculated for men - (F M) as the ratio of the number of births (N) to the number of men 15-49 years old (M):

F M = N/(t*M)*1000

Usually it turns out to be larger than the usual special. coefficient fertility, because at the age of 15-49 there are usually fewer men than women due to their higher mortality. The age interval for men is sometimes taken as 15-54 or 15-59 years, since the upper limit of the reproductive age of men is very arbitrary. In such cases, special coefficient for men and women are not comparable.

More accurate measures of the birth rate are partial coefficients. Most often, age coefficients are used. fertility F x/x+y, i.e. the number of births to mothers from x to x + y - 1 years inclusive (N x/x+y), referred to avg. number women of this age (W x/x+y):

F x/x+y = N x/x+y /(T*W x/x+y) * 1000.

To calculate age coefficients. Fertility for men requires a distribution of births by father's age: such data are usually not available, and accordingly. indicators are rarely calculated. The values ​​of age coefficients fertility depends on the share of women of age x who are married, and on the levels of marital and non-marital fertility (and resp.), therefore

This coefficient characterizes cf. the number of births per year, and over y years, i.e. throughout the entire age interval, there will be y times more of them. The age coefficient, increased by y times, is called. coefficient birth rate in the age interval F y x/x+y and is equal to F y x/x+y = y * F x/x+y .

In the USSR in 1978-79 coefficient. The birth rate for women 15-19 years old (inclusive) was 39.4 o/oo. This means that by the age of 20, 39.4 * 5 = 197 children are born per 1000 women. Since births before the age of 15 are very rare, this coefficient. can be considered a cumulative (accumulated) coefficient. fertility by age z = 20 years (F z). It represents the number of births to hypothetical women. generations who have reached z years of age over their entire previous life. Cumulative coefficient birth rate is equal to the sum of age coefficients. in intervals, the first of which begins at age 15, and the last ends at age z. For y-year intervals

For one-year intervals

Total coefficient birth rate (F cym) is equal to the sum of age coefficients. fertility in all age intervals or cumulative coefficient. fertility by the end of the reproductive period.

In 1978-79 in the USSR the total coefficient. The birth rate was 2285, or 2,285 births per woman. By y-year intervals:

at 1-year intervals:

Total K. r. is a more accurate measure of the birth rate, since it characterizes the average. number of births per woman in a hypothetical generation over its entire life, while maintaining existing levels of fertility at each age, regardless of mortality and changes in the age composition. Total coefficients above 4.0 are considered high, below 2.15 - low. The total coefficient, calculated at 1-year age intervals, does not depend on the age structure of the population, but it is influenced by the marriage rate. The specials described above and private coefficients Fertility rates are calculated for hypothetical. generations and characterize its level in a given calendar period. Their calculations for a real generation can be carried out according to a different scheme: summing up, for example, age coefficients. The birth rate for women was 15 years old in 1945, 16 years old in 1946,..., 49 years old in 1979, you can get an approximate estimate. number of children born to women in 1929-30. birth, that is, women of the real generation who have completed childbearing. In practice, such calculations are rarely made due to lack of data. Therefore, the fertility characteristics of real generations are obtained by interviewing women during a census or survey. about the number of children born to them at the time of the survey. If the year of birth of the woman and the years of birth of each child are taken into account, it is possible to obtain cumulative fertility rates for certain ages for several women. generations.

To eliminate the influence of the marriage structure, a coefficient is applied. marital birth rate (F m), i.e. the ratio of the number of people born in marriage (N m) to the number of married women 15-49 years old (W m):

F m = N m /(T*W m) * 1000.

The coefficient is also calculated. out-of-wedlock birth rate (F s), i.e. the ratio of the number of those born outside the register. marriage (N s) to the number of unmarried women 15-49 years old (W s):

F s = N s /(T*W s) * 1000.

If the share of out-of-wedlock births depends on what proportion of women of reproductive age are not married and cannot serve as a characteristic of fertility, then the coefficient. out-of-wedlock birth rate correctly characterizes the intensity of childbearing among unmarried women.

Fertility rate by order of birth of a child to a mother (n i) - the ratio of the number of births of the i-th order (N i) to the total number. us. (S):

n i = N i /(T*S) * 1000.

General coefficient birth rate is equal to the sum of the coefficient. for all birth orders:

n = n 1 + n 2 + ... +n k,

where k is the order of last birth. To more accurately assess such a distribution, the probability of family growth (a n) is often calculated.

In addition to the private coefficients. according to one criterion (mother’s age, her marital status, order of birth of the child, etc.), if there are corresponding ones. data, partial coefficients can be calculated. according to several characteristics: age coefficients marital and extramarital birth rates, coefficient. marital fertility by duration of marriage and birth order, coefficient. marital birth rate by combination of the ages of the father and mother, etc. Since when calculating each of these coefficients. the influence of several is eliminated immediately. structural factors, they serve as valuable demographic characteristics. family behavior. At the same time, the multiplicity of these characteristics makes it difficult to obtain a general indicator. Because of this, for an in-depth study of the fertility process, not just one, but a system of interrelated indicators is used.

Analysis of all coefficients fertility is necessary for a correct assessment of the demographic situation and for making demographic forecasts.

L. B. Sinelnikov.

Demographic encyclopedic dictionary. - M.: Soviet Encyclopedia. Editor-in-Chief D.I. Valentey. 1985 .