Analyst: Ruble devaluation does not make anyone happy

© Illustration by Rosbalt News Agency

The devaluation of the ruble does not make anyone happy, but in the second half of the year the exchange rate of the Russian national currency may drop to 64-68 rubles per dollar. This forecast is given by the director of the analytical department of Alpari, Alexander Razuvaev.

He recalls that recently the analytical department of a subsidiary investment company of Sberbank published the 20th edition of the survey of consumer confidence of Russians. “The overall consumer confidence index fell to minus 15% in the second quarter from minus 10% in the first quarter. Negative quarterly dynamics are observed for all components of the index, but the greatest change affected estimates of national welfare (last 12 months and next 12 months). Analysts explain the change in the index by the weakening of the ruble,” the expert’s review says.

According to him, “in Russia, as in many other countries, people primarily determine their personal and national financial well-being by the stability of the national currency.” “The fall of the ruble, in fact, is not so scary if you do not have foreign currency loans or do not travel abroad. The impact on inflation is, of course, significant, but much less than during the crisis of 2008 and, especially, 1998. The formation of a national domestic market and import substitution had an impact,” Razuvaev emphasizes.

Meanwhile, he points out, “there is also people’s perception, internal confidence, a psychological comfort zone, if you like.” “Devaluation does not make anyone happy. But moral damage or emotional discomfort can hardly be measured in a hard monetary amount. We still believe that in the second half of the year the ruble exchange rate may drop to 64-68 rubles per dollar. And inflation will exceed the Central Bank’s target of 4%,” the analyst suggests.

According to him, “poverty and internal discomfort remain the main problems of Russian society.” “It is possible, of course, to solve this problem through economic growth. This will take 30 or 50 years. And if you solve it quickly, here and now, then Russia needs a strong ruble,” the expert sums up.

The economic state of the country is of serious concern to every resident of the country, but now that the new year is approaching, the situation with the ruble has become of particular interest. Is there any hope for establishing some stability or should we expect greater difficulties? One of the especially discussed topics now is whether the devaluation of the ruble will happen in 2017 in Russia? This question can only be answered with assumptions.

Many are concerned about the state of the Russian economy; it is obvious that any changes that affect it in the coming year will affect all citizens and their well-being.

The most serious indicator of economic condition can be called the ratio of the Russian ruble to the US dollar. Based on what the ruble exchange rate may become in 2017, we can estimate the likelihood that devaluation will occur. In addition, there are still a large number of factors, external and internal, that can influence the situation in the country.

• fall or rise in oil prices;
• the impact of the situation that is developing in Ukraine;
• economic sanctions;
• outflow of funds outside the country.

Internal factors include:

• changes in Federal Reserve rates;
• unemployment;
• inflation.

One significant factor is oil prices. According to experts, an increase in the price of oil can improve the situation with the ruble and strengthen the position of the Russian economy. Oil exports are a significant share of profits in Russia, but now only trends toward a drop in oil prices are noticeable. This situation continues to negatively affect the ruble.

Foreign sanctions also affect forecasts of whether there will be a devaluation of the ruble in 2017 in Russia. The introduction of such measures has already led to a drop in import and export turnover. Investments from other countries and sources of financing have decreased. Sanctions imposed by other countries, as well as Russia itself, have a negative impact on everyone, and yet they continue to be extended. If this situation does not change, we can expect a further fall in the ruble.

It is worth considering such an internal problem in Russia as unemployment. The increase in the number of unemployed, caused by the difficult situation in the country, in return complicates it even more. People who have lost the opportunity to work are not able to positively influence the economy, but in the current situation it is not possible to help everyone, which is reflected in the further fall of the ruble.

Forecasts for 2017

Now we can name three main options according to which the economic situation will develop in 2017:

One way to cope with the situation is to save significant money. Thanks to them, it is planned to reduce expenses by one trillion rubles during 2017. However, it is impossible to say exactly which areas will be most affected by the economy. Most likely, the greatest difficulties await the social sphere, including changes that will affect the current retirement age.

In addition, an emphasis on goods produced within the country will contribute to positive trends in the economy, and, in addition, will be beneficial to domestic producers. However, this means losses for those producers who depend on foreign raw materials or technologies.

Recently, Russian citizens have been extremely concerned about their financial condition. Assessing the current state of the country's economy, experts say that devaluation in the new year 2019 is still worth waiting for.

At the moment, it seems that the exchange rate of the domestic currency relative to the dollar is at a fairly stable level. But under the influence of a number of factors, such as, for example, sanctions, conflict situations in foreign policy and the expansion of the state’s territory in recent years, a decrease in the price and volume of oil sales, the indicators may worsen significantly.

The decline in the price of “black gold” provoked the introduction of new rules, according to which, when selling a barrel of oil for $40, the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency for the entire amount of proceeds.

In addition, from January 15, the Ministry of Finance is expected to resume market purchases of foreign currency to replenish the National Welfare Fund as part of the fiscal rule. This has always led to a weakening of the ruble, and this cannot be avoided in 2019 either. In its statement timed to coincide with an increase in the key rate by 0.25%, the Central Bank speaks about this directly.

It would do well for people to start monitoring how their wallets and pockets are filled now. And it’s better not to delay applying for loans or credit cards, because with devaluation the rates on them will only rise.

What is ruble devaluation?

First of all, we will explain to you what devaluation is in simple words. All in all, ruble devaluation- this is a decrease in the real exchange rate against the background of hard currencies (dollar, euro). It is considered an instrument of central banks, since it is the complete opposite of the process of increasing the ruble exchange rate (revaluation).

There are open and hidden devaluations. The first is officially announced by national banks, but not the second, because in this case we are talking about a depreciation without withdrawing money from the general foreign exchange turnover.

The official devaluation of the ruble in Russia was observed twice. It first became a consequence of default in 1998. Then the currency exchange rate against the dollar fell by 246. Much smaller rates of depreciation of the domestic currency were observed in 2008. Then the ruble fell by 30%.

The devaluation of the ruble in 2019 has slowed down a bit, but continues to worry the population. At times we even have to say that this year the authorities will begin a manual fourth devaluation, because a stable ruble today may be unprofitable for higher-ups and structures.

Official forecasts of the ruble exchange rate

The forecast exchange rate of the ruble is, first of all, displayed in the Social and Economic Development Strategy of the Russian Federation. It states that in 2018 the ruble exchange rate will be 64.9 rubles per dollar, and in 2019 - 2020 the ruble will weaken to 68 - 69 rubles per dollar.

But as we know already in August 2018, the exchange rate was already 66.89 rubles. From this we can conclude that the official forecast is not particularly accurate.
Other forecasts take into account capital outflows and Central Bank policy, not just falling oil prices. Let's say the Ministry of Finance does not expect serious fluctuations in the exchange rate. However, with a planning horizon of more than 10 years, the accuracy of the forecast is low. Every year, information about the predicted ruble/dollar exchange rate changes and is highly dependent on market conditions, so you should not rely on it in your decisions and it is better to take it as a reference.

But we would like to note that not only official bodies make a forecast for the ruble exchange rate. For example, Sberbank also makes forecasts, but its accuracy in recent years has turned out to be even lower than that of official sources. His assumptions that the weighted average exchange rate of the ruble in 2018 would be 58 rubles per dollar were dispelled already in the second quarter of 2018. Needless to say, the bank’s forecast that in 2019 the exchange rate will be 58.5 rubles does not stand up to criticism at the moment? In reality, the ruble/dollar exchange rate has always been significantly higher than official forecasts.

Expert opinions

Experts and market participants, unlike official sources, assess the situation on the market a little more accurately and their forecasts are usually more accurate.

For example, leading analyst at Amarkets, Artem Deev, stated that

As for the prospects for the national currency for 2019, taking into account the expected resumption of decline in oil prices, as well as a new round of Western sanctions aggression, devaluation of the ruble is almost inevitable. Most likely, very soon the new reality for the exchange rate will be quotes above 70 rubles per dollar.”

Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist of the BCS financial group, believes

The stabilization of the economy, noticeable in recent years, is only a temporary phenomenon. Negative political and foreign economic conditions will lead to a further decline in the economy and the national currency.

Denis Poryvay, Raiffeisenbank

The domestic currency is expected to devaluate in 2019.

Very often, experts note that if oil prices remain in the range of $50 - $60 per barrel of Brent, and massive purchases of currency by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance begin, then the dollar exchange rate will go up, and will not even go up, but will fly - to the level of 75-77 rubles for a dollar.

In addition, experts note the outflow of capital and investment. For example, for November 2018, the data is simply shocking - capital outflow is already 3.3 times higher than last year’s volume (in just one month), with the total outflow being 2 times more than in the previous two years.

As can be noted, the experts did not come to any single decision regarding the ruble.

Ruble and real estate

As you know, changes in exchange rates cannot bypass any area of ​​life of the country's population. Naturally, the devaluation processes will not bypass the real estate market. Rumor has it that a fall of the ruble by at least 5% compared to the current exchange rate will lead to a sharp rise in prices for apartments, houses, and so on.

The devaluation of the ruble will also change the lending system. Along with monetary growth, there will also be an increase in loan interest rates. Therefore, if your profit is not measured in hard foreign currency, you should hold off on borrowing money.

How to avoid becoming a victim of devaluation

You can protect your pockets from the monetary panacea described above by resorting to the following methods:

• focus on natural hedging (it is worth bringing the currency into a single denomination and it is desirable that they be represented in foreign banknotes);
• always make financial clauses (agree with clients/creditors on possible actions if the rate of the domestic currency increases in comparison with the hard currency);
• Organize yourself
• convert existing funds into hard denominations;
• acquisition of shares of some enterprises, organizations, etc.;
• purchase of investment fund securities;
• purchase of precious metals
• (stable and safe haven for savings, especially worth considering this issue now if you have been saving for a long time)

So, devaluation is a complex process, which is extremely difficult to understand, but it is necessary in order to protect yourself from unnecessary monetary losses. Be vigilant and don't let currency games empty your pockets.

When respectable men in suits talk about devaluation and inflation on television, the Russian audience is divided into three main groups. The first ones begin to panic and think chaotically about where to put their savings, because they already had a bad experience in 1998 and 2008. The latter, having no family or gold reserves, believe that they have nothing to lose. The third, a very small group, believes that the situation is under control by the authorities and is about to improve.

Which of them is closer to the truth?

What is devaluation in simple terms

All states take part in trade operations on the world market. To simplify the system when making transactions, partners set a convertible currency standard; for Russia, this standard is the US dollar and the euro.

Previously, before the “gold standard” was abolished, devaluation of the ruble was considered to be a decrease in the value of the national currency in relation to gold. Now the situation has changed.

Another significant change occurred in the fall of 2014. Until this moment, the value of the ruble was regulated and fixed by the Central Bank of Russia, but now the domestic currency is deprived of this support.

Many Russians who are not professionally involved in economics confuse devaluation with default and redenomination.

I must say that these concepts are completely different, so:

1. Today, devaluation is considered to be a decrease in the value of the ruble in relation to the currencies of other countries.
2. Denomination is a change in the number of zeros on a banknote, which Russians encountered in the nineties of the twentieth century.
3. Default is a more critical situation in which the state is unable to fulfill financial obligations, including external debts.

The reasons for the depreciation of the national currency may be different. These include the weakening of the economy as a result of natural disasters, sanctions, wars, that is, an increase in government expenses that are no longer covered by income.

There is another situation: the state deliberately lowers the value of its currency, which allows it to receive significant profits from the export of goods. For example, the price of oil in dollars has dropped significantly, but since there are now more rubles in dollars, the change in this price in rubles is not so significant.

Thus, devaluation may be beneficial to the state.

Will there be a devaluation in 2019?

Along with Russians, foreign citizens are also asking this question, out of sympathy or for a completely opposite reason. No one can give a definite answer with an absolute guarantee yet, but the months that have passed since the beginning of the year demonstrate actual indicators.

As the graph shows, the exchange rate of the American currency is highly dependent on sanctions coming mainly from the United States. The strongest speculative factor is the restriction on the purchase of government debt for US companies. In other words, the popular “carry trade” strategy of buying Russian ones for dollars and obtaining a decent return by world standards may cease to exist due to legal restrictions. All this encourages foreign investors to sell Russian bonds, buy dollars and withdraw them from our securities market.

Most analysts view investments in the Russian economy as quite risky investments, which means the outflow of capital from the country will continue to one degree or another.

Whether or not there will be a devaluation this year depends on many factors:

• outflow of capital from the country;
• oil prices;
• imposition or lifting of sanctions;
• Fed rate adjustments;
• the conduct or cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and the degree of participation of our country in these events.

It is unlikely that anyone will take responsibility for accurately predicting these changes, but if they are not in a positive direction for Russia, it will be impossible to count on stability, much less an appreciation of the ruble.

It must be said that devaluation is not a one-day process, which means that it will not be possible to solve the problem in one day. According to expert forecasts, no sharp fluctuations are expected this year, although in the event of new drops in oil prices, the dollar exchange rate could rise to 100 rubles.

How will loans be issued?

According to economic professionals, this year another reason for devaluation will be added: the outdated banking system, which requires mandatory adjustment. One of the main banking issues that concerns the population is the possibility of obtaining loans.

During times of fluctuations in the value of the ruble, the population is afraid to trust their savings to banks, as a result of which funds are withdrawn from circulation and the resources that banks may have become noticeably scarcer. These events lead to certain changes in the lending system.

Last year was definitely difficult for the Russian economy, which inevitably affected banks and financial institutions. Many of these institutions were unable to stay afloat during the crisis; as a result, the number of organizations providing loans will decrease noticeably in 2019.

In this regard, the following changes are expected for borrowers:

1. Increase in base rates and interest.
2. Inclusion of a number of issuance and service fees.
3. Age category of borrowers (some organizations will consider customer applications only after they have reached the age of twenty-five).
4. Voluntary – compulsory loan insurance.

It should be taken into account that the demand for loans will also decrease. Not everyone will risk burdening themselves with such obligations in such an unstable period.

If Western sanctions are lifted, it will be possible to count on the loyalty of banks.

Learn about the denomination or devaluation of the ruble from the video.

How to save money during currency fluctuations

To preserve savings in the current difficult circumstances, analysts and economists recommend shares of companies producing exports, precious metals, real estate and foreign currency.

Many experts consider it promising to spend capital on opening a well-planned and thoughtful business, since the number of competitors at this time will be noticeably reduced.

Upon detailed study, it becomes clear that with devaluation, import prices increase, and accordingly, the demand for domestically produced goods will increase.

The prices of imported cars, electronics, and household appliances will rise significantly, so now is the time to spend the savings accumulated for these purposes. Only without fanaticism, because many remember how in 2014, panicked people began to buy useless things in unnecessary quantities, and then did not know how to get rid of them.

Today, “multi-currency” accounts are very popular, the owners of which have the opportunity to transfer their savings from one currency to another, taking into account the favorable exchange rate.

Consequences of the devaluation of the Russian ruble

Probably everyone is familiar with the situation when you really want something, and a person, succumbing to temptation, makes an unplanned expensive purchase. Then, for a certain time, he has to deny himself something, restoring the family budget.

The same thing happens with the state budget, which has a hole in it and will take time to patch it up.

The devaluation consequences could be compared to two sides of a coin, if it had different sides.

So, the negative consequences:

1. Increase in prices for goods and services at the same salaries.
2. Loss of confidence in the weakened ruble.
3. Depreciation of bank deposits.
4. Increase in inflation.
5. Declining purchasing power
6. Unemployment. After all, many enterprises use imported raw materials, equipment, materials, but due to rising prices they will be forced to reduce or completely stop their activities.

We should also not forget that when a person lacks funds, he often begins to take bribes and steal. This means there is a high probability of increased crime and corruption.

And now about the good stuff:

1. Stimulation of domestic production and import substitution.
2. Development of tourism in Russia, because Holidays abroad will become an expensive pleasure.
3. If imports are abandoned, more money will remain in the state treasury.

Even a child, counting point by point, will notice that negative consequences predominate.

Possible scenarios and expert forecasts

As for Russian analysts and experts, the forecasts here are very diverse, and mostly short-term. Even the most experienced specialists find it difficult to predict events for the second half of the current year and next year.

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexey Ulyukaev, believes that this year the dollar will be valued at around 63 - 64 rubles.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's forecasts are not so optimistic: he predicts a collapse of the Russian economy and a decline in the standard of living of the population. Economist Vladimir Tikhomirov and Nikolai Salabuto agree with him, expecting the dollar to rise in price to two hundred rubles per unit.

The famous economist Mikhail Khazin predicts the collapse of not only the Russian, but also the entire world economy and banking policy.

On one point, the opinions of domestic experts are similar: everything will depend on the price of “black gold”, around which the Russian economy is currently revolved.

The fall in the ruble exchange rate affects the economic situation of our neighbors and partners. In Belarus, the ruble is also devaluing, despite President Lukashenko’s assurances that there will be no devaluation in the country this year.

However, experts and analysts have a different opinion. Belarus’s dependence on Russia is obvious, because our country is the main buyer of Belarusian exports, and if their ruble is more stable than ours, trade will simply become unprofitable for Russians, and Belarus risks losing a partner.

In addition, the increase in the dollar exchange rate is dictated by world oil prices, which the Belarusian government is unlikely to be able to influence.

Another factor is the impending denomination of the Belarusian ruble, and in what direction prices and salaries will be rounded is unknown to the population, which means that people are worried and begin to withdraw money from bank circulation and hide it in their stockings. As mentioned above, the withdrawal of money from circulation is one of the reasons for devaluation.

All experts are confident that Belarus cannot avoid devaluation this year, but no sharp fluctuations are expected. Bankers and financiers completely agree with them.

So what does the ruble exchange rate depend on?

The exchange rate of the national currency is influenced by a combination of the following factors:

1. A stable political situation in the country, attracting partners and investors.
2. Confidence in the national currency of both the local population and foreign citizens.
3. Development of production, industry and agriculture.
4. Oil prices on the world market.

Based on this list, a lot still needs to be established in our country, which means that all Russians will have to work hard.

In contact with

The economic crisis that started in 2014 and is still ongoing has forced many people to delve deeper into financial and economic news. Of course - after all, from the news, if you carry out at least the simplest analysis, you can roughly understand what will happen to the economy in the near future.

To do this, you need to at least have a general understanding of the basic terms. One of them is devaluation. This word is often heard on screens now, but do you know what “ruble devaluation” is in simple language? Reconomica gives a detailed answer to this pressing question. We will also conduct an up-to-date analysis of forecasts for the ruble exchange rate for 2017.

Plans of the Ministry of Finance for devaluation of the ruble for 2017

At the beginning of this year MInfin about the devaluation of the rubleexpressed himself quite accurately and clearly: a national currency that is too strong is not profitable for the state budget.

When planning the budget for 2017, it was plannedthe exchange rate is 67.5 rubles per dollar (that is, the same as in mid-2016), and the price of oil is 40$ . In mid-February we see a different indicator - 57-58 rubles per dollar and about 55$ per barrel. This ratio may lead to the fact that the Russian budget will receive less funds. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance decided to artificially reduce the ruble exchange rate to the required level (see current exchange rates).

What is ruble devaluation in simple terms?

To begin with, let's give a definition of devaluation.

According to Wikipedia, this is a decrease in the gold content of a monetary unit under the gold standard.

To put it simply, this is official depreciation of the national currency against hard reserve currencies(US dollar and Canadian dollar, British pound, yen, Swiss and French francs). Since the US dollar is considered to be the “main” currency in the CIS countries, further in the text we will only talk about it.

The devaluation in Russia began in the first months of 2014, when the ruble exchange rate began to decline, albeit gradually, but steadily. From that moment until February 2016, this process was quite fast: in 2 years, the value of the national currency decreased by more than 2 times. At the beginning of 2016, the rate briefly broke through the 80 mark. However, then the same smooth rollback began: throughout 2016, the rate began to slowly strengthen, albeit with small jumps upward.

Changes in the dollar exchange rate from 1998 to 2016

There are several reasons for the devaluation of the Russian ruble:

Partially - the costs of the 2014 Olympics. A huge amount of budget funds were spent on its holding, which partially shook the ruble even before the “Ukrainian” crisis.

Sanctions imposed due to the “Ukrainian” events. Firstly, Russian banks have lost access to foreign capital. Secondly, Russian manufacturers have lost foreign markets. Thirdly, Russian enterprises have lost the opportunity to purchase raw materials and equipment abroad.

Annexation of Crimea. Budget funds are also needed to finance the peninsula (from payments to state employees to the construction of a bridge).

Declining oil prices. The Russian economy is significantly dependent on oil and gas exports. The more expensive they are, the better the national currency “feels”, and vice versa. Almost 3 years after the start of the crisis, one can notice that the ruble is partially “untied” from the price of oil, but this dependence still remains strong.

Currency speculation. You can earn quite a lot from such large and fast jumps in the exchange rate. Therefore, speculators became actively interested in the ruble-dollar pair. They could not seriously influence the exchange rate (due to small volumes), but they could accelerate the process of falling or increasing the exchange rate that had begun. For example, when the ruble began to fall sharply at the beginning of 2016, they began to actively buy the dollar, expecting an even greater depreciation of the national currency. Due to the sharply increased demand, the dollar exchange rate began to grow faster.

How to save your savings?

Since the national currency depreciates during a crisis, the most unprofitable thing is to store cash. Money that's just sitting around your house loses value every year. That is, last year, with a nominal 15 thousand rubles, you could buy a certain set of food products for a month. This year, due to the rise in price, the same set will cost more.

To save funds from depreciation, they must be invested so that they generate income. The easiest way is a bank deposit in rubles. It will cover, if not all inflation, then at least most of it. It is also important that small deposits are insured by the state. For 2017, the maximum amount of insurance compensation when a bank’s license is revoked is 1,400,000 rubles.

Regarding the question of choosing a currency: for those who earn in rubles, live in Russia, and do not plan any large purchases that depend on the exchange rate, the easiest way is to keep funds in rubles.

Why is the government devaluing the ruble?

To balance the budget (which set an exchange rate of 67.5 rubles per dollar), the Ministry of Finance in January proposed devaluing the ruble by about 10%. This will be implemented by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. On February 7, he began buying dollars, replenishing the Reserve Fund.It is planned to purchase $100 million daily.

According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, such actions should lead to the Reserve Fund receiving about 241 billion rubles, and the budget deficit will decrease by 2 times (from 1.5% to 0.7% of GDP).

According to the first head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (Gleb Nikitin), the optimal rate for the Russian economy at the current stage is 65 rubles per dollar. He also predicts that a greater weakening of the national currency is possible - up to 70.

As a result, the weakened ruble will be beneficial to those enterprises that produce products and sell them abroad - they will receive more benefits. The losers will be those companies that buy foreign equipment and consumables: since they will become more expensive in rubles. It will also be worse for the population: all goods imported from abroad will become more expensive.

Such figures could be seen on exchangers in January 2016

Essentially this actionfrom the governmentis the desire to earn money: And buy the currency now at 57-58 rubles, and sell it at a reduced rate at 65-67.

So far (by mid-February) there have been no noticeable results from the Central Bank devaluing the ruble. Well dollar practically unchanged(continues to remain in area 58), although currency buying has been going on for more than a week.

In what currency should an ordinary person store money?

The basic rule of storing money is diversification. Simply put - dividing savings into several currencies.

However now the scheme has changed significantly. The European currency has shown itself to be unpredictable and unstable. In less than 3 years, it has lost (against the dollar) about 15%. Therefore, storing money in it is not recommended.

For those who are looking for the simplest option, there remains the dollar and the ruble, in equal proportions, or with a slight bias towards the national currency. That is, 50-70% of funds should be kept in rubles, the rest in dollars.

The currency ratio must be chosen based on your own plans for the near future:

If you are planning large purchases (an apartment, a car) in Russia in the next six months or a year, it is advisable to store most of the funds in rubles (say, 60-80% in rubles, the rest in dollars). There are not very many chances that the ruble will fall again significantly (at least for the first quarter of 2017).

If you are not planning large purchases in the coming year, it is better to keep your funds in half: half in dollars, half in rubles.

It is recommended to periodically adjust the ratio. For example, the dollar fell throughout 2016, which means it would be profitable to exchange it for rubles. Now that it costs less than 60 rubles, thisalready looks risky, since the Central Bank has stated that such a rate is unfavorable for the budget.

What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in 2017?

H what will happen to the ruble exchange rate in 2017 -a question that many analysts are already afraid to answer. The past 2 crisis years have shown that it is better not to predict exact numbers, so as not to make a mistake and spoil your reputation.

1 barrel contains 1 barrel of oil, or almost 159 liters

IN Much of the complexity of the forecasts depends on the unpredictability of oil prices and the foreign policy of the new US president. Donald Trump is positioned as a politician committed to improving relations with the Russian Federation. Having barely taken office, he was already talking about lifting sanctions. Of course, in fact, they are unlikely to be canceled in the foreseeable future, but this mood is already favorable for the Russian currency.

As for oil: at the end of November 2016, a meeting of countries belonging to OPEC (the organization of petroleum exporting countries) took place. It was decided to reduce the production of raw materialsand limiting it to a certain level (for example, Russia reduced production by 300,000 barrels per day. Overall, global oil production decreased by 2% (according to OPEC President Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sad).

Due to the decrease in quantity, an increase in oil prices followed. As long as the agreement is maintained (each country produces no more oil than the agreed value), the cost of a barrel does not decrease.

As practice shows, such agreements are not always observed.In addition, OPEC does not include all countries that produce oil. If they decide to increase production, this could oversaturate the market with products. As a result, oil prices will begin to decline. In a chain reaction, this could lead to OPEC members also starting to increase production so as not to lose profits.

In addition, American shale producers are holding back oil prices from further growth. If the cost of a barrel continues to rise, it will become profitable for US shale companies that will begin production

Forecasts for the ruble for 2017 generally look something like this:

If no important events occur (OPEC agreements are respected, sanctions remain in full force), then during the year the rate should remain within 60-65 rubles per dollar.

If the price of oil goes down again (which is likely, but most likely in the future, not earlier than the end of the first half of the year), the ruble will also go down. It’s difficult to say exactly how much the currency will fall, but the most commonly cited figure is 65-70 rubles.

The ruble will remain in its gained positions, perhaps strengthening to about 55.

Almost no one predicts sharp and strong jumps in the exchange rate (like at the beginning of 2016, when it broke through the mark of 80 rubles per dollar).